As the World Energy Council works toward global sustainable development with initiatives to contribute effectively to global sustainable development, address climate change challenges, improve the living of people, manage the energy transition to 2030/2050 and manage risk responsibility, panelists during one of yesterday afternoon's sessions came together to discuss various scenarios that both they and the Council have worked on help achieve future energy efficiency and global sustainability.

Moderated by Karl F. Rose, Senior Fellow Scenarios, WEC, attendees learned best practices.

"The questions WEC always asks itself is, 'Can WEC actually compete, or is there an added value we can bring to this crowded scenario (of energy foresight). Can we add something?' I think we say yes we can because of a very unique structure and diversity of WEC membership," Rose said. "If we look at WEC as a network of knowledge … WEC is unbiased and holistic in its view and it aims to have inclusiveness in the solutions it actually shows."

Referring to the afternoon's presentation as a "fireside talk without the fireside," Rose said, "We have actually brought together a panel of users as well as builders of scenarios who are going (to discuss) in their opening statements and views how can it help us to deal with the critical uncertainties they are facing in a critical energy system?"

Ged Davis, co-president, Global Energy Assessment Council, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, said he has worked on more than 130 scenarios and what he has noticed is how the timeline changes for results needed.

"Within an oil company, research and resource require something like a 40- to 50-year perspective," he said. "If you look at the scenario …looking at responses, it's difficult to do responses that go out more than 50 years because of the poor technical options."

As he was preparing for his presentation yesterday morning, thinking of an easy way in which to convey the idea of scenarios and their impact on the future of technology and sustainability development, Davis recalled his thought process. "What is the simple message from what I’ve learned?" he asked. "MOPPEDS."

"The 'M' is for multi-perspective; good scenario work is both multiperspective and increasingly multiclient," Davis said.

“Secondly they have to build in Ownership – you are not building scenarios as an expert for somebody else, they are building scenarios for energy foresight for themselves… to… provide context for what they want to do,” he continued.

"The 'P' is multi-use, it's about Purpose – if someone comes to you saying they want to do scenarios, show them the door; you need to understand why you would want to be able to do energy foresight … there's another 'P' that is important and that is 'Perishable' … scenarios of the future are like tomatoes, they actually are worth eating today, but I wouldn't advise eating them in a year or two year's time …

"The 'E' is employable, whenever you get into a project you design for use to be able to employ the work for the purpose you've defined. And the 'D' is 'Dialogue' – good scenario work creates dialogue across group's with a very diverse set of views."

"And lastly the 'S' is speed," he said. "Increasingly you don't have the luxury of doing things over a long period because the world changes quickly … the requests are can you do it quicker and quicker. New tools, new methods and new things quicker – and that's a story in itself."

Dian M. Grueneich, Commissioner, California Public Utilities Commission (United States), discussed her involvement with California's energy efficiency projects, long-term procurement planning and transmission expansion planning.

"One of the things that we find continuously that we do not have is good info and data. In all three process that is almost single-handedly confines us," she said.

In analyzing past and current scenarios, there are some things that should be taken into consideration, said Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic – deputy director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

"You have to have a portfolio of scenarios, they have to be plausible," he said. "I think this is very welcome that WEC is taking a look at its scenarios – it is also instructive to look at older scenarios – why the things that were not anticipated were not seen … perhaps more important is whether you got certain things right for the wrong reasons…"