The U.S. oil and gas story is so compelling, and recent well results have been so good, that exports should be allowed--and if they are, they will help stabilize U.S. gasoline prices, said ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) senior economist Helen Currie. She was the opening keynote speaker at Oil and Gas Investor’s 7th annual Energy Capital Conference in June.

“In an era where economic optimism can be somewhat elusive, the U.S. and North America can be a beacon of light, and that beacon is coming from the U.S. oil and gas producers.

“Shale gas could account for well over half of North American production by 2020. It’s a huge increase,” she said, citing continuing positive well results from some of the newer plays such as the Marcellus, Utica and Montney in western Canada. “These plays provide some very compelling returns on investment. They should enable North American LNG exports without revisiting the prices of $7 to $9 that we saw in 2005-2008.”

Currie said the U.S. is able to produce natural gas at reasonable prices because the resource base is so large and of such good quality, but the U.S. oil story is equally exciting.

“It’s just equally compelling. It’s quite a turnaround we’ve seen in liquids production. The peak year was 1970 at about 11 MMbbl/d [million barrels per day] ...bottoming out in 2008 at about 6.7 MMbbl/d, but now we are already back up to 10 MMbbl/d. Our Department of Energy is now forecasting that by 2020 the U.S. could be producing well over 12 MMbbl/d—and that’s arguably a conservative estimate. There is a lot of upside to these estimates. Some people even think we’ll get close to 14 [MMbbl/d].

“If you ask yourself is U.S. tight oil material on the world stage, our answer is a resounding yes. It truly is world-scale.

“You can easily see that U.S. tight oil production estimates for this year, at least, will put U.S. production on a level that exceeds every member of OPEC except Saudi Arabia. We consider that fairly impressive.”

Upstream producer spending is an indicator that production growth will continue, she said. “We see a tremendous amount of growth planned for the U.S. onshore and a little bit on the Shelf over the next decade. Why is ConocoPhillips so confident about this? Well, we are still seeing a lot of improvement out in the field, in my own company and elsewhere. We as an industry are still early on the learning curve. A lot of technologies are being experimented with, and these are driving costs down. It’s reasonable to expect that to continue well into the future.”

The main plays accounting for the growth include the Eagle Ford, Marcellus and Permian Basin of West Texas, where, Currie said, “the more you find, the more you find. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.”

Broader market implications affecting international trade are significant, she said, citing the recent decline in U.S. oil imports and the fact that refiners are substituting domestic light oils for the oil they were previously importing.

Domestic light oils will squeeze out heavy sours and eventually, intermediate crudes, she said.

Experts conclude the best allocation of light, tight oils is in the world market and not confined to the U.S. Gulf Coast. “You hear a lot of reports advocating a change in U.S. export policy. If these light crudes were to be sold into the light crude oil market that would be more efficient than allocating them to a U.S. refining industry” not equipped to take them.

Currie cited an IHS study on crude exports that looked at the benefits that could accrue to the U.S. “First and foremost, the conclusion was that gasoline prices could well go down. U.S. consumers can save as much as $18 million a year at the pump and the economy could benefit as well...and gain in jobs. We realize this is an issue that is important to consumers and policymakers.”

Experts believe that allowing exports will have a stabilizing effect on global oil markets—and already, the mere existence of more U.S. crude oil has helped to stabilize markets in the last few years, Currie said.

When asked for ConocoPhillip’s view on oil prices in the next five years, Currie replied, “We don’t say much publicly about that, but we do see lots of reasons to be optimistic on the demand side…and the abundance of supply. Frankly we are quite optimistic on the demand side, which indicates support for world oil prices.”

The company is working through its organizations in Washington, D.C., to speak to policymakers. “I think it’s fair to say they are listening and I am encouraged at least by the opportunity to have a conversation with them. We do see that happening.”