The forecasts for 2013 are in and it looks like a flat year for domestic oil and gas, if the Punxsutawney Phils of petroleum prognostication are correct.

Apparently everyone is using the same crystal ball for 2013. The short, sweet summary is that a consensus is embracing an outlook calling for flat oil and gas prices, flat operator spending, and flat rig count.

Operators are still releasing their individual projections of 2013 capital spending as the first quarter gets under way, and those initial numbers are, as you would surmise, flat with 2012.

What could possibly go wrong with the 2013 consensus?

First, the term “flat” sounds so negative. A more descriptive phrase might be “steady as she goes,” assuming trends for 2012 hold true—sans the sharp drop in the fourth-quarter 2012 rig count.

But “steady as she goes” may also misstate the scenario. It appears operators will begin 2013 with a modestly beneficial tailwind. The primary reason: flat to declining service costs. The 2012 collapse in the natural gas market left an oil services sector with too much capacity, as new units came online while underutilized capacity in natural gas basins rotated to higher-demand oil basins.

That led to reduced pricing for pressure-pumping services, as evidenced by the spate of fourth-quarter 2012 earnings pre-announcements among the largest publicly held well-stimulation firms. Market channel checks indicate the drop in activity and pricing is even greater than acknowledged.

Elsewhere, pricing for drilling rigs softened for lower-spec equipment though it remains, well, “steady as she goes” for higher-spec technology rigs in 2013. That means operators, particularly in the technically challenging tight-formation plays, have an opportunity to high-grade rigs and crews at little extra cost, which invariably translates into increased efficiency.

A second tailwind has to do with the issue of efficiency itself. Operators are realizing additional cost savings in the transition from optimization to resource harvest in the major unconventional plays.

The trend surfaced in third-quarter 2012 earnings calls, when operators noted they were able to move forward with fewer rigs and still meet program targets. Efficiency will almost certainly continue as a theme in the main horizontal plays in 2013, as operators reduce cycle times further through pad drilling and improved implementation of existing drilling processes such as more accurate lateral placement.

Furthermore, operators benefit from getting the same output for less input in terms of well count, and that argues for an incrementally lower rig count on average in 2013. Rig rates will not be going up.

The question is whether less input can increase output even further. In other words, the industry may need fewer rigs to drill the same number of wells, but if those wells become more productive, then the industry is entering an era of exponential improvement per dollar spent rather than numerical improvement, which implies a need for even fewer rigs going forward.

Productivity gains can also impact commodity pricing. “Steady as she goes” is not a problem with WTI in the mid-$80s. But increased domestic oil production, which is a given for all forecasters, could combine with reduced hydrocarbon demand to create an environment of gradually deflating commodity prices. In that case, the tailwind of efficiency improvements becomes a necessary tool for staying “steady as she goes” in a downward revenue curve.

Such a scenario may be a long-term trend, but is unlikely to materialize until after 2013 is in the history books.

Operators are starting the year cautiously, belying the otherwise positive convergence of beneficial factors. Conversely, operators sound overly optimistic on expectations for natural gas prices. Domestic gas production should roll over in 2013, but not in any meaningful volume until the second half of the year.

So what could possibly go wrong with a “steady as she goes” forecast? For one, the oil patch is never “steady as she goes” for long. It is headed up, or down.

For another, the consensus view in oil and gas is always a subliminal descriptor for the current market and seldom a predictor of the future market. Last year began with anticipation of an expanding 2012 rig count on greater capital spending. Operators, in fact, spent early, and often, and the year ended with a rapidly deflating rig count.

It is now 2013. Has anybody seen a groundhog?