In the collective mind of the oil and gas industry, the smog hovering over the industry will linger.
A Capital One energy survey conducted at Houston’s NAPE summit in February found an overwhelming belief that prices will remain flat through next February, finding money is a concern and acquisitions are looming.
The survey also showed this is an industry of optimists.
Among industry professionals, about 73% cited pressure on commodity prices as their biggest concern for 2015, according to the survey.
“Concerns about energy prices will impact the operational and financial outlook of companies across the industry," said Russ Johnson, head of energy investment banking, Capital One Securities.
The focus on energy prices represented a 50-point increase from those surveyed at NAPE in 2014. Only 11% of respondents cited increased regulation as their greatest concern, down from 40% last year.
This year’s outlook is a significant contrast from the prior year’s more optimistic findings. About two-thirds of respondents last year expected gas prices to remain steady or increase in 2014, and 71% anticipated similar stability for oil prices.
In 2015, the forecast was dire: 89% of respondents do not expect a significant bounce in energy prices for at least 12 months. Only 10% expect a price rebound within six months.
Many of the survey respondents had funding concerns, with 72% identifying access to/cost of equity capital as the most important financing issue in 2015. This was followed by refinancing of current debt (17%), and access to/cost of senior debt (9%).
Johnson said companies will need an experienced banking partner in the current price environment to help “navigate the industry’s challenges and provide customized financing solutions that position clients for future growth."
Though it’s off to a slow start, 88% of those surveyed expect the pace of M&A activity to increase in 2015, a 30-point rise from last year's survey.
“We expect to see a trend toward consolidation in 2015, as some industry players take advantage of M&A opportunities to strengthen their strategic position and prepare for eventual movement in energy prices," added Bob Mertensotto, head of energy debt capital markets, Capital One Bank and Capital One Securities.
Only 10% of respondents expect M&A activity to decrease.
Despite the volatility in energy prices, respondents maintain a positive outlook overall—79% of those surveyed expect to feel better about the performance of the energy industry in a year, compared with 13% expecting to feel worse.
In trends that are expected to gain momentum in 2015, 58% of survey participants selected U.S. energy independence and 27% chose opposition to shale development. Respondents who expect growth in alternative energy to be the leading industry trend dropped to 1% this year from 11% in the 2014 survey.
Capital One conducted the survey of conference attendees at the NAPE Summit on Feb. 12, 2015. The survey gauged the sentiment of the oil and gas industry in the coming year, and respondents included professionals from different specialties within the energy industry. Percentages are based on 107 responses.
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