Petroleum exports climbed for the week of Jan. 24 to 3.661 million barrels per day, a 2.2% increase on the week and about 27% higher than January 2012, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. oil production was essentially flat at 8.044 million barrels per day. The EIA did not change its estimate for Lower 48 production, which was indicated at 7.509 million barrels per day the previous week, said Richard Hastings, a macro strategist with Global Hunter Securities LLC.

The export-to-production ratio increased favorably, hitting 45.51% last week compared to 43.6% one year ago, he said.

U.S. Weekly Estimates, Thousand Barrels Per Day

Product

Current Week

Last Week

1 Year Ago

2 Years Ago

1/24/14

1/17/14

1/25/13

1/27/12

Products

3,661

3,583

3,047

2,884

Finished Motor Gasoline

586

498

484

626

Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

156

123

122

71

Distillate Fuel Oil

1,296

1,339

1,083

996

Residual Fuel Oil

372

376

400

381

Propane/Propylene

376

370

160

102

Other Oils

875

877

798

708

Crude Oil*

61

58

44

37

Total

3,722

3,641

3,091

2,921

Source: EIA

*Note: Crude oil exports are restricted to crude derived from fields under the waters of Alaska’s Cook Inlet; Alaskan North Slope crude oil; crude destined for Canada; shipments to U.S. territories; and California crude oil to Pacific Rim countries.

Less certain is the impact of the recently opened Cushing-Nederland pipeline, a Gulf Coast project that is a 487-mile, 36-inch crude oil pipeline that originates in Cushing, Okla., and extends south to Nederland, Texas, to serve the Gulf Coast marketplace. The Gulf Coast Pipeline’s initial expected capacity is 700,000 barrels per day.

The $2.3 billion pipeline began flowing on Jan. 22.

Midwest oil inventories grew by 1.5 million barrels per week last week and Gulf Coast stocks increased sharply by 4.5 million barrels.

“Although these increases were notable, they should be thrown against levels at the same exact week in prior years,” Hastings said. On that basis, the inventory increases in the Midwest were -6.6% and the Gulf Coast 0.14% year over year.

Hastings said it is “too soon to assume that the Cushing-Nederland pipeline will boost oil stocks at the Gulf Coast, especially in light of the trend in the year over year growth differential in product exports and Gulf Coast oil stocks.”

Increased refinery capacity was also promising, rising to 88.2% from 86.5%, though Gulf Coast capacity remained subdued at 87.7% last week.