With so many exploration and production (E&P) companies and investors looking to OPEC’s meeting Nov. 27 in Vienna, Austria, the results might be a letdown no matter what the oil cartel decides on production output.

In the past three months, oil prices and popular energy indices are down about 25%, with WTI spot prices falling Nov. 25 to $74, the lowest level in four years.

Pundits and analysts are questioning what influence OPEC can have on oil prices when it can’t rein in its own members’ production and infighting is common. The strength of U.S. production, even in a prolonged turndown, has also reduced OPEC’s price leverage and made it cautious.

Regardless of whether OPEC can stem the oil price "death spiral," it appears any OPEC decision won’t have the desired effect any time soon, said Pavel Molchanov and J. Marshall Adkins, analysts for Raymond James Equity Research.

“The oil market and energy stocks are likely weeks away from a near-term bottom,” Molchanov and Adkins said in a Nov. 24 report.

Analysts predicting an OPEC production cut say it won’t be by much – perhaps by 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d).

Saudi Arabia signaled indifference to a major change in oil output. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he expected the oil market eventually to "stabilize itself," Reuters reported Nov. 26.

Richard Hastings, macro strategist, Global Hunter Securities, said he has low to medium confidence in an OPEC cut between 250,000 bbl/d and 500,000 bbl/d.

“We do not expect a big, aggressive production cut at this time,” Hastings said.

OPEC is more likely to aggressively cut should Dated Brent prices fall below $70/bbl and stay below that level for more than two months.

Hastings said geopolitical turmoil, especially the influence of the Arab Spring starting in 2011, has eased greatly in recent months, taking away the conflict premium that shaped oil pricing.

However, new tensions with Russia and Iran suggest “the conflict premium is likely to come back into the price story.”

Hastings said a small cut by OPEC, which is expected, could rally prices by $3/bbl before settling at $81.50.

“This goes against the consensus, which seems to believe prices will break down badly without a robust production cut of near 1 MMbbl/d,” he said. Such a production cut might jumpstart prices to $3.75/bbl before settling near $82.

However, even should prices descend to about $70/bbl, Hastings sees little or no change in U.S. production. OPEC members, on the other hand, will begin to feel pain and make a more material change in output.

In the near term, oil prices are likely to align with the futures strip, assuming $81 WTI through 2016, said Tim Rezvan, analyst, Sterne Agee.

“Given our cautious oil price outlook, we trim fourth-quarter 2014-2016 earnings estimates across our coverage universe,” he said.

Among 20 companies covered, such as Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) and Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL), average earnings per share (EPS) for 2014 will fall, on average, by $0.06. In 2015, estimated EPS will fall, on average, by $0.41.

Stateside Impact

OPEC's decision will likely drive prices one way or another and impact E&P companies’ capital budget plans for 2015, even in U.S. shale plays, said David Tameron, senior analyst, Wells Fargo Securities.

But it will take a huge disturbance to turn down production.

An $80/bbl threshold remains widely acknowledged as a point at which industry activity, including capital budgets and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) start to take a step back. However, some companies are expected to be opportunistic with M&A in a down market.

“Should crude prices remain below that level, 2015 capital budgets are likely to show a meaningful decrease from 2014,” Tameron said.

Rig activity will slow at lower crude price levels, but anyone looking for a U.S. slowdown to ease global supply concerns is misguided, Tameron said.

“Our analysis shows that while a rig slowdown would have an impact, it would take a massive rig cut and it would be at least 12-18 months before we would see a meaningful production response,” he said.

In the Bakken, rig counts would have to drop slightly more than 30% to keep production flat with 2014 output. In Texas, Eagle Ford and Permian rigs would have pull out by substantially more than 30% for production to stay at current levels.

“The typical U.S. shale producer probably has more flexibility and ability to achieve at least modest production growth in a low oil price environment than is typically appreciated on a global basis,” said Roger Read, senior analyst, Wells Fargo Securities.

OPEC Relevance

A larger debate surrounds OPEC’s meeting: Does the cartel still have enough influence to be a showstopper for crude prices?

Some argue the organization’s power to influence prices has weakened.

But even a pre-OPEC mini-meeting by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico and Venezuela proved uneventful and might have had a hand in pushing WTI down 2.5%, along with U.S. Department of Energy reports of a larger anticipated build in crude, analysts said.

OPEC oil is no longer as important to the U.S. as it once was. U.S. imports of OPEC crude and petroleum fell 38% in 2013 from a high of 2,182,607 Mbbl in 2007, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the same time, Thanksgiving gasoline prices are the lowest since 2009.

Member countries are unlikely to produce meaningful support for oil cuts. A more subtle solution might present itself.

OPEC members might continue to flaunt the organization’s 30 MMbbl/d quota or the organization will more strictly adhere to the current quota, effectively translating into a minor cut.

Michael Lewis, strategist, Deutsche Bank Markets Research said an examination of oil market fundamentals suggests a coordinated cut in production in inevitable.

“In its last meeting in June, the OPEC Secretary General indicated that oil prices around $95-$110/bbl represented a fair range,” Lewis said. “Given the slump in oil prices since June, OPEC is under increasing pressure to cut production.”

According to OPEC’s market projections, the call on OPEC crude will fall to 29.2 MMbbl/d in 2015 as a result of strong non-OPEC supply growth. As of last month this compares to OPEC production, including Iraq, of 30.6 MMbbl/d, which is 0.6MMbbl/d above the current quota agreement.

Hastings said that players in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf understand that a prolonged period of lower prices will gradually reset global petroleum demand. They might also provide pushback against growing pressures from emissions regulations and changing energy technologies, Hastings said.

“History seems to mean a lot to crude oil prices. The results of the OPEC meeting could be resolved by history, with multiple possible outcomes over the near term, only to be overwhelmed by bigger historical and market forces in the upcoming months,” Hastings said.

Michael Cohen, an analyst at Barclays, asked in a Nov. 24 report if the world is seeing the end of OPEC's golden age.

Ultimately, Cohen said Nov. 27 is “all about credibility.”