For months now, the favored parlor game has been speculating on when the M&A logjam will break and which companies are the most likely targets. But when Anadarko Petroleum Corp. revealed its rebuffed approach to buy Apache Corp., the market reacted with skepticism.

Oppenheimer’s Fadel Gheit said a merger between the two wouldn’t be a good fit. RBC Capital Markets said Apache has no need to sell, but if it did embrace a buyer, it would do so at $70-$80 a share. Apache traded around $48 on Nov. 11, a few days after the story broke.

One bright spot: The proposed deal shone a spotlight on the favored Permian Basin, where M&A activity remained strong this year (fueled in part by 80 private-equity-backed E&Ps). Apache holds the third-largest acreage position in the basin.

This question remains: Will M&A heat up soon, after months of conservative spending and companies sticking to their knitting?

On the Oct. 28 conference call to discuss third-quarter results, Anadarko chairman and CEO Al Walker said, “Growth will not be rewarded in this environment, and focusing on building and preserving value is more important at this time.”

He was referring to reining in drilling action and costs, but not, apparently, to making a deal, because just days later, he admitted he had made a foiled attempt to open M&A discussions with Apache.

Bloomberg broke the story of an unnamed suitor for Apache on a Sunday night. Analysts’ puzzled comments trickled out Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, Anadarko finally ’fessed up. Walker said he wanted a confidentiality agreement, but his overture was “summarily rejected and no discussions of substance occurred.”

In a press statement, he added that, “The proposed all-stock transaction, which included a modest premium, would have been highly accretive to Anadarko on a cash-flow-per-share basis, even before synergies.

“Further, based on public information and Apache’s historic financial and operating underperformance, the proposed transaction offered shareholders of both companies numerous value-creation opportunities ….”

Once Anadarko was revealed as the suitor, analysts reacted swiftly and mostly negatively. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. said it sharply downgraded Anadarko, although it still likes the company’s global asset mix. “But simply put, the consideration of acquiring APA drives overarching concern on strategic thoughts around acquisitions. Hard to envision the rationale for combining the assets absent improved balance-sheet strength, given cultural/portfolio overlap.

“The deal would have levered APC to a large mature international asset base, which we believe APA has efficiently run, while bolting on a smaller core unconventional business in the U.S., where APC is long inventory. High grading assets is paramount for equity success in our view and it was hard to see how this combination would have accomplished that task.”

Morgan Stanley’s Evan Calio weighed in: “In our view, this represented a classic M&A defense: leak the offer (drive up acquiree’s stock), several days later leak the buyer’s identity (drive their stock down), particularly in this case where a vanilla APA/APC transaction would be viewed negatively for APC and flattering to APA.”

Analysts saw this as a one-off rather than an indication of a wave of similar high-profile deals—at least not for another quarter or two.

It seems unlikely that Apache would agree to sell. Founded more than 50 years ago, its corporate culture, from founder Raymond Plank (now retired) on down, was to build it to last.

While speaking at Hart Energy’s Executive Oil Conference in Midland, Apache CEO John Christmann did not mention the rumored deal. Having assumed the CEO chair in January of this year, he no doubt doesn’t want to relinquish it this soon, especially when he is touting his achievements in the midst of a two-year company turnaround.

British Columbia and Australian LNG assets, and Australian and Argentine upstream assets, sold. Gulf of Mexico Lucius and Heidelberg fields, sold. All told, some $10.5 billion of nonstrategic assets sold.

Tulsa office closed. Management change made. Unconventional resources team created. Rigs idled, 86 since September 2014. Budget for 2015 chopped 60% (one of the largest cuts among its peer group).

If the Permian was one of Apache’s main attractions, it is no wonder. Third-quarter conference calls were full of upbeat Permian news. EOG completed a record-breaking well in the Delaware Basin that had an IP-30 of 3,490 boe/d. Parsley Energy set a basinwide speed record, drilling horizontally 7,128 feet in 41 hours at a Wolfcamp well in Reagan County.

These advances will endure when oil prices recover, for once the top of the learning curve is reached, there’s no going back.

We hope to see you again at our annual Marcellus-Utica Midstream Conference in Pittsburgh on Jan. 27 and 28.