Jan Arps is the most influential oilman you’ve never heard of.
In 1945, Arps, then a 33-year-old petroleum engineer for British-American Oil Producing Co ., published a formula to predict how much crude a well will produce and when it will run dry.
The “Arps method” has become one of the most widely used measures in the industry. Companies rely on it to predict the profitability of drilling, secure loans and report reserves to regulators. When Rep. Ed Royce (R.-Calif.) , said at a March 26 hearing in Washington that the U.S. should start exporting its oil to undermine Russian influence, his forecast of “increasing U.S. energy production” can be traced back to Arps.
The problem is the Arps equation has been twisted to apply to shale technology, which didn’t exist when Arps died in 1976. John Lee , a University of Houston engineering professor and an authority on estimating reserves, said billions of barrels of untapped shale oil in the U.S. are counted by companies relying on limited drilling history and tweaks to Arps’s formula that exaggerate future production. That casts doubt on how close the U.S. will get to energy independence, a goal that’s nearer than at any time since 1985, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
“Things could turn out more pessimistic than people project,” said Lee. “The long-term production of some of those oil-rich wells may be overstated.”
Lee’s criticisms have opened a rift in the industry about how to measure the stores of crude trapped within rock formations thousands of feet below the earth’s surface. In a newsletter published this year by Houston-based Ryder Scott Co ., which helps drillers calculate reserves, Lee called for an industry conference to address what he said are inconsistent approaches. The Arps method is particularly open to abuse, he said.
U.S. oil production has increased 40% since the end of 2011 as drillers target layers of oil-bearing rock such as the Bakken shale in North Dakota, the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Mississippi Lime in Kansas and Oklahoma, according to the EIA. The U.S. is on track to become the world’s largest oil producer by next year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. A report from London-based consultants Wood Mackenzie said that by 2020, the Bakken’s output alone will be 1.7 million barrels a day (bbl/d), from 1.1 million bbl/d now.