A year ago, both mainstream and contrarian global oil and gas analysts served up bright to bleak visions of future commodity supply, demand and pricing through 2020. How good were their prognostications-at least through 1999? Charles T. Maxwell, a New York-based global oil strategist, predicted low West Texas Intermediate crude prices of $12 to $17 for 90% of the 1999-2004 period, with a final downward spike to around $10 per barrel by the spring of 2000. "I'm analytically surprised by the unity that OPEC has shown since last March, when it put together a political agreement to bring its total production cuts since 1998 up to 4.3 million barrels per day," he says. "Also, through careful negotiation, it brought along with it Oman, Russia, Norway and Mexico, to achieve a total world oil-production cut of about 5 million barrels. By taking that amount of crude off the market, OPEC brought supply and demand into balance-an assumption I didn't make when forecasting low oil prices, particularly for this coming spring." In a revised outlook, Maxwell is now predicting that oil prices, after climbing this winter to as high as $27 to $30 per barrel, will settle in a range of $19 to $21. "I think this is OPEC's target and we'll probably see three or four years of pricing at that level." Last January, Denver-based Thomas A. Petrie, chairman and chief executive officer of Petrie Parkman & Co., was directionally right, but conservative, when he predicted an average $16 WTI crude price for 1999. "The future arrived sooner than we thought," he says. "OPEC compliance was very good throughout 1999. Also, economic growth was healthy in the U.S. and Europe, while Asia began to show signs of recovery. All this we anticipated and it was good for demand." But another factor, one on the supply side, also strengthened crude prices in 1999. "Non-OPEC production ran lower than many people predicted," he explains. "Capital spending cutbacks by the industry resulted in declines in U.S. oil production, and less growth in non-OPEC output outside the U.S. than in previous years. The memory of $11 oil was still fresh in a lot of people's minds." Petrie's most recent take on oil prices? "For 1999, they should average $19, and for 2000, range in a band of $16 to $18 at the low end and $27 to $30 at the high end. This assumes that OPEC discipline remains intact." Albert J. Anton, partner and international oils analyst for Carl H. Pforzheimer & Co. in New York, also had the direction of 1999 crude prices pegged right, but similarly forecast an average $16 WTI price for the year. "OPEC reduced its oil output by 1.7 million barrels per day last April, somewhat higher than the 1-million-barrel-per-day cut that we expected; however, if we misjudged anything, it was non-OPEC supply," he says. "Not only did certain non-OPEC producers pledge to OPEC to reduce output by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, but the remainder of non-OPEC production fell short of our expectations, particularly in Norway, the U.S. and Canada. That led to tighter supply-demand and higher average oil prices of $19 per barrel for 1999." Looking ahead, Anton believes that OPEC wants to see crude inventories in the U.S., Europe and Japan drawn down to 1996-97 levels before it begins adding production. "If the cartel pursues that policy through the end of March, we could see oil prices in early 2000 spiking up to as much as $30 per barrel before settling back to an average $20 for the balance of the year." Matthew R. Simmons, president of Simmons & Co. International in Houston, argued strenuously a year ago that the industry needs to come to grips with the production decline curve in the world's hydrocarbon asset base or face an oil-price shock. His take today? "We're about to have that shock because we've allowed demand to exceed supply." Simmons says worldwide demand in 1990 was 66.8 million barrels per day; this year, he says, it's expected to be more than 78 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, non-OPEC supply has grown from 42 million daily barrels to only 44 million barrels, as of second-quarter 1999. "This is an incredible indictment of how many mistakes we, as an industry, made in the 1990s, in terms of betting that there was a glut-that there wasn't a need to bring on more supply," he says. His message to the industry: "Wake up! Production decline rates worldwide are now 10% to 15% per year."