Between 1990 and 1998, the North Sea accounted for 72% of non-OPEC oil production growth and 31% of worldwide crude production growth. But the North Sea is changing. "The easy production growth of the 1990s is now turning into the reality of higher depletion and declining field sizes in both the U.K. and Norway sectors of the North Sea," say Daniel R. Pickering, managing director and head of oil service research, and Roger D. Read, vice president, oil service research, for Simmons & Co. International in Houston. Although opportunities for significant production growth still remain in the deepwater Atlantic Margin, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea regions, the two analysts emphasize that the North Sea itself is unlikely to witness any meaningful growth in production in the future due to the maturing of the basin. This isn't necessarily bad news for every North Sea energy player, however. "We believe the oil service industry will be a long-term beneficiary of this changing market," says Pickering. He explains that, for E&P companies to simply stabilize production at current levels, their demand for oil services will have to grow substantially. In this new environment, oil service companies that focus on subsea completions, floating production, extended-reach drilling, seismic and other production-enhancement products will be the winners, says Read. On the other hand, "fabrication companies that rely on the development of large fixed and floating platforms are unlikely to experience the growth rates they have in the past."
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