The Eagle Ford shale is one of the most impressive and economic resource plays in North America, and that opinion is based on a lot of data, according to Trevor Sloan, managing director of Calgary-based ITG Research.

Production will hit 3 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) by 2019, assuming 220 rigs keep running. There are 18 billion BOE remaining to be recovered if oil falls below $80—and 28 billion BOE if oil is above that price.

“There's a huge amount of low-cost resource still available here, and we estimate seven to nine years of drilling remaining. The lowest rig-weighted breakeven price in the Lower 48 is the Eagle Ford, at about $57.50 per barrel, and that is just below the Bakken's breakeven,” Sloan said.

But the 7-million-acre play is not homogeneous. Knowing a particular county's data is not enough. Knowing an operator is not enough. Well results and internal rates of return vary widely, he said, speaking at Hart Energy's fourth annual DUG Eagle Ford Conference in San Antonio.

Sloan told some 4,500 attendees that ITG bases its Eagle Ford outlook on the analysis of more than 5,400 wells and more than 250 unique type curves in the Eagle Ford.

ITG has further broken the play into eight separate windows, ranging from 100% oil in the west, to condensate in the east, to wet gas in the west, and everything in between. The west wet-gas area is the most prolific, with average wellhead estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) of 662,000 BOE. The least prolific are wells in the east dry-gas area, with average EURs of 300,000 BOE.

“The EURs in the oil windows are improving…but we are seeing deteriorating results for the eastern liquids window (natural gas liquids),” Sloan said.

At the same time, results overall are improving, thanks to E&P companies' use of longer laterals, more proppant, more gel fracs, more sand and tighter chokes.

Pad drilling and closer well spacing are being tested all over the play, often with excellent results.

The highest EURs are being reported in condensate-heavy wells drilled in Webb, LaSalle and De-Witt counties. Some of the highest initial production rates are in Gonzalez County.

“The dominance of the Karnes Trough is clear. You want to be within seven miles of the oil-condensate demarcation line,” he said.

Operator-specific results are highly variable, Sloan said. Rosetta Resources, SM Energy and BHP Billiton report some of the highest EURs. Some touch a breakeven price below $60 for WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude).

—Leslie Haines

For complete coverage of DUG Eagle Ford, see UGcenter.com and OilandGasInvestor.com.