Debate continues throughout the oil industry as to whether world oil production has peaked, or soon will, followed by a long, slow and irreversible decline. "Everybody talks about this being a demand story-we can all be experts on China now," Mark Tinker, chief investment strategist for London-based Execution Ltd. at the John S. Herold annual energy conference recently. "The scenarios range from doomsday to optimism that technology and innovation will solve the supply problem. "High oil prices will no more kill the U.S. consumer than did any of the previous (scares)-September 11, the housing bubble, etc." Tom Petrie, chairman of Petrie Parkman & Co., believes the world is in for a period of highly intensified competition for energy supplies. "Current world production is in serious decline," he said. "Project timing will therefore be critical. If all goes right, by the end of this decade, additional potential sources could range from 13- to 25 million barrels per day, from the North Slope of Alaska, deepwater Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, the Caspian and Russian region, and Canada." Discussion of the enormous growth in world oil demand has been overdone, he said, yet the challenge to meet that demand will be chronic through the end of the decade. Long-time energy analyst Charles Maxwell of Connecticut-based Weeden & Co. agreed, saying the signs of difficulty in meeting world demand are appearing already. "We can see it in companies like BP, ExxonMobil and Shell having real problems growing today. That's part of the non-OPEC story. But OPEC will be going strong." For more on this, see the November issue of Oil and Gas Investor. For a subscription, call 713-993-9320, ext. 126.
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