Caracas, Venezuela-based consultancy Ecoanalítica expects Venezuela’s oil production and economy to grow in 2024—aided primarily by a recent license granted by the U.S. government to the benefit of oil and gas companies.
“In general, we expected 2024 to be better than 2023,” Ecoanalítica’s top economist Asdrúbal Oliveros said during a video this week on Instagram where he laid out certain projections for the new year.
General License No. 44, granted in October 2023 by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), will result in higher oil production and income for the Venezuelan government, Oliveros said.
RELATED
Global Energy Watch: Chevron and the US’ Geopolitical Chess Match with Venezuela
Oliveros expects Venezuelan oil production to rise between 70,000/bbl/d-80,000 bbl/d through April 2024, but reiterated it would continue to be contained within a 200,000 bbl/d ceiling before an additional license extension, more economic certainty and investments were needed to boost production further.
Venezuela’s production averaged 780,000 bbl/d in Nov. 2023, according to OPEC’s December 2023 Monthly Oil Market Report, citing data from secondary sources. Venezuela’s production averaged 680,000 bbl/d in 2022 and 553,000 bbl/d in 2021, according to OPEC.
State-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) expects to boost production to at least 1 MMbbl/d in 2024, according to a series of posts in late December and early January on X, formerly Twitter.
Higher economic impact
In 2024, Oliveros projects Venezuela’s oil revenues to rise by around $4 billion in a conservative scenario and up to $10 billion in an optimistic one, assuming prices for the country’s oil basket are between $60/bbl-$70/bbl.
Higher oil production and government income could lead to salary increases that could translate into increased economic activity in 2024, a presidential election year, Oliveros said.
The Venezuelan economy could grow by around 9.7% in Oliveros’ conservative scenario, but he warned there were still a number of headwinds around recent sanction relief granted by Washington in a move to promote “free and fair” elections.
Recommended Reading
Message in a Bottle: Tracing Production from Zone to Wellhead
2024-04-30 - New tracers by RESMAN Energy Technology enable measurement while a well is still producing.
TGS Starts Up Multiclient Wind, Metaocean North Sea Campaign
2024-05-07 - TGS is utilizing two laser imaging and ranging buoys to receive detailed wind measurements and metaocean data, with the goal of supporting decision-making in wind lease rounds in the German Bright.
Exclusive: Silixa’s Distributed Fiber Optics Solutions for E&Ps
2024-03-19 - Todd Chuckry, business development manager for Silixa, highlights the company's DScover and Carina platforms to help oil and gas operators fully understand their fiber optics treatments from start to finish in this Hart Energy Exclusive.
CERAWeek: AI, Energy Industry Meet at Scary but Exciting Crossroads
2024-03-19 - From optimizing assets to enabling interoperability, digital technology works best through collaboration.
Cyber-informed Engineering Can Fortify OT Security
2024-03-12 - Ransomware is still a top threat in cybersecurity even as hacktivist attacks trend up, and the oil and gas sector must address both to maintain operational security.