Remember when the Eagle Ford shale was the hot new gas play? Natural gas still traded above $8 per thousand cubic feet in 2008 when Petrohawk Energy Corp., a front-runner in the ballyhooed Haynes ville shale, revealed its STS #241-1H well in LaSalle County in South Texas at 9 million cubic feet per day. The Energy Information Administration estimated Eagle Ford recoverable reserves at 50 trillion cubic feet of gas. And the race was on.

But a funny thing happened on the way to proving up the gas-focused Eagle Ford. A glut of gas production from preceding resource plays swamped the nation and the price plummeted, eventually to as low as $2. Undaunted, Eagle Ford producers retooled, declared the play “liquids rich,” and went on their merry way drilling.

Today, Eagle Ford liquids production is fast approaching 1 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) a day—maybe achieved by year-end—and will be the fastest growth play in history to reach that milestone in four years.

The vast natural gas opportunity, however, has largely been forgotten. Perhaps the pause will be shorter than most anticipate.

Pioneer Natural Resources chief executive Scott Sheffield posed this question to the audience at Hart Energy's DUG-Eagle Ford conference recently: “What's going to happen to the Eagle Ford dry gas?” After all, it makes up a significant portion of the reserves and long-term potential of the play.

Pioneer is well-entrenched in the play. It held 300,000 acres targeting the Edwards in 2008 when it decided to test the Eagle Ford, due to flaring when drilling through it. The company was in the process of drilling its first Eagle Ford well when Petrohawk announced its own discovery 100 miles to the south.

Pioneer has since drilled more than 300 wells and is producing 103,000 BOE per day with 10 rigs running.

That's in the more favorable liquids window. While Pioneer has selectively drilled to hold certain dry-gas acreage, more than 70,000 acres have disappeared from its Eagle Ford holdings. “We've let some acreage expire in regards to dry gas,” Sheffield acknowledged. “In our economics, you need somewhere between $5 and $7 gas” to drill the dry-gas phase.

Yet patience may prove prudent, he believes. Two major catalysts on the horizon could change the trajectory of rigs seeking Eagle Ford dry gas sooner than later, relatively speaking.

First, Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas. The Department of Energy has approved permits for three LNG export facilities along the Texas and Louisiana shorelines. Sabine Pass LNG, Lake Charles Exports and Freeport LNG together will have the capacity to ship 5.6 billion cubic feet of gas a day once built. First LNG from Sabine Pass is expected to be shipped in 2015.

The Eagle Ford shale is in a prime position to feed those trains, particularly the facility at Freeport. Another at Corpus Christi is proposed. That's good news for Eagle Ford dry gas.

Second, Mexico's plight regarding natural gas. Even though Mexico has 555 Tcf of recoverable shale reserves, per the EIA, its natural gas production is steadily dropping as state-owned oil company Pemex focuses its efforts on oil. With a constitution that prohibits foreign investment in state minerals, industry at the end of the pipeline is losing productivity due to shortages.

Already, the U.S.' southern neighbor imports some 2 Bcf per day, most from the U.S. via pipeline. An additional 400,000 MMcf is supplied by global LNG shipments costing four times as much as the U.S. gas market.

Several cross-border natural gas pipeline projects are being planned to help fill Mexico's need. Barclays Research projects export capacity to Mexico will increase to 7 Bcf by 2016. At least 2.4 Bcf will cross through new South Texas pipeline hookups. Again, that's good news for Eagle Ford dry gas.

Natural gas production in the U.S. stands at 67 Bcf per day. If Mexico ramps up to 4-to 6 Bcf over the next five years, combined with 5 Bcf consumed by Gulf Coast LNG projects, suddenly 10 Bcf is cut from the equation.

So what's going to happen to Eagle Ford dry gas? “I'm predicting the second big phase of the Eagle Ford will happen between 2017 and 2022, when people will be focused on natural gas,” Sheffield said.

In the meantime, the industry will focus on downspacing the play. Pioneer is testing 40-acre spacing. “That's what's going to take the play to the next step,” Sheffield said, “until we decide what's going to happen to the gas side.”