When will well-meaning, smart people give up and admit that it is not possible to orchestrate a sane world oil scheme? The government cannot do it. Neither can OPEC. Forget the United Nations. They, and irate consumers, point fingers of blame and demand that somebody do something. Short of dictatorial fiat, forget it. It is not possible to get accurate numbers describing the situation, much less to control the supply-demand balance. We are dreaming of utopia if we think we can deliver just the right amount of crude oil at the right time and place, for a reasonable price, thus putting consumers at ease. The global production, movement and consumption of oil are just too big and too volatile. The International Energy Agency, the U.N., governments, consulting firms and analysts cannot manage this. No one knows how many barrels are really stored away by nations, shippers, refiners or other companies. No one can predict the geopolitical surprises that inevitably knock the precarious balance off kilter-that's why these events are called oil shocks. Starting this month, OPEC will hike production by 800,000 barrels a day, which essentially makes its "cheating" output official. Five of the 10 OPEC nations (excluding Iraq) were already producing in excess of their new targets before the September agreement, says Salomon Smith Barney. By mid-2001, we'll know if this is too much, setting the stage for prices to fall more than producers would like. With its new target of 26.2 million barrels of oil per day, OPEC will be pumping at 95% of capacity-its highest level in 20 years. If one counts the surge in Iraqi production, all of the group's production cuts made in 1998-99 have now been reversed-and still the world cries out for more oil. It may not get it until non-OPEC production starts to go back up, sometime in mid-2001 at the earliest. Within OPEC, only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates can increase production by any meaningful amount. Iraq claims it cannot go much beyond current output of 3 million barrels a day until well into next near, because it lacks certain spare parts and equipment. It had planned to boost output to 3.4 million barrels by year-end, but now says it cannot. Even if OPEC produces more oil immediately, there is some question as to whether there are enough tankers to move it to market. More new ships are scheduled for delivery next year, however. Is it any surprise that demand has finally begun to react to these high prices? Annual average North American demand is projected to fall ever so slightly, by 0.3% in 2000 and by 0.4% in 2001, according to analyst Alan Struth at Honeywell Hi-Spec Solutions in Houston. "The deficit versus a year ago in global oil inventories is about to turn to a small surplus in the fourth quarter of 2000," he says. "Demand has generally been weaker than forecast while supply is slightly higher than forecast." Is it any surprise that everyone involved is blaming everyone else for the price spike? The more vocal members of OPEC say high prices result from Nymex speculators, high government taxes on gasoline and political pressures. Is it any surprise that two senators have called for yet another study, with an eye toward forming a comprehensive national energy policy? Charles Schumer (D-New York) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) tacked an amendment to the energy appropriations bill that will create a presidential energy commission. This would be a coalition of industry, government, environmental and consumer groups. It would look at how to stabilize prices (this cannot be done unless the government reimposes price controls that were lifted in 1981) and how to reduce the nation's need for imports (this cannot be done without introducing vast incentives to increase U.S. production, or by cooling the economy). The bill, now in the House, has a second amendment demanding the Administration present a plan to Congress for dealing with high energy prices. The only way is to offer subsidies for low-income folks this winter, and/or subsidies to U.S. oil and gas producers to drill more. When prices were so low 24 months ago that the U.S. producer was in jeopardy, Congress didn't seem to think a study, much less a coherent policy, was necessary. We don't need another study or commission. Dozens of them from the past 20 years are gathering dust already. The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, a group of governors from all the producing states, wrote a comprehensive energy policy a few years ago that will serve just fine. The IOGCC has offered this plan to the government. What we do need is a lively debate on how to safely and economically increase U.S. oil and gas drilling, then get out of the way and let companies do it.