Almost concurrently, the winds of political change have recently swept across governments-legislatures and/or executive branches-of most of the Western hemisphere's largest oil-producing countries, and investors are advised to take heed. Four of these countries-the U.S., Mexico, Canada and Ecuador-accounted in 2005 for 20% of the hemisphere's 21 million barrels per day of oil production, or 25% of world oil output, notes Bernard J. Picchi, senior managing director and energy equity research analyst for Wall Street Access in New York. "Of these four, the one energy investors should watch most closely is Mexico," stresses Picchi. He points out that its new leader, Harvard-educated Felipe Calderon, won a Bush/Gore-like victory over his leftist opponent and stands for privatization, flat taxes and free trade. Since 40% of Mexico's budget revenues come from oil, the fortunes of that industry will be central to that country's fiscal health. "And therein lies the problem: the country's largest oil reserve, the offshore Cantarell Field, is in fast decline." For more on this, see the January issue of Oil and Gas Investor. For a subscription, call 713-260-6441.
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