You never know what Dr. Michael J. Economides, professor of chemical engineering at the University of Houston's Cullen College of Engineering, is going to say to either rally--or rankle--a crowd. This has been the consensus of many who are familiar with his rather colorful opinions on powerful leaders and their role in global energy politics.

Depending one's politics, beliefs or worldview, however defined, a presentation by Economides can either be a good time or it can get downright ugly.

So, it's no small wonder why a certain ilk would balk at an author whose latest book bears the hefty title Energy and Climate Wars: How naive politicians, green ideologues, and media elites are undermining the truth about energy and climate.

Judging by this, Economides is admittedly the enemy in the midst of a group of "unfriendly" environmentalists, given his staunch pro-"old"-energy stance and his frankness in delivering it. "I'm always the bad guy in the room (with them)…I'm always the oil and gas guy," he quipped, while speaking to one of his friendlier audiences at Winter NAPE 2011.

You might say that in Houston, where we give thanks to energy for putting food on the table and powering our local economy during shaky economic times, and at an event where oil and gas deals are made, Economides' perspective was right at home.

But while he is many things--Greek Orthodox, an unassuming Democrat ("you'd never guess--I am, all my life"), "the only 'white' guy in the room" ("if you consider me 'white,'" he joked) during his frequent trips to China, Economides is unequivocally a realist, particularly when it comes to energy and what makes the world go 'round.

As it happens, he is also an accurate forecaster. "I'm Mr. $100 oil," Economides said. "I predicted that the price of oil would reach $100 by Jan. 15 and was off by only one week." Whether using the European benchmark or the price per barrel of Louisiana sweet (he checked beforehand), make no mistake, $100 oil is here.

To this end, Economides maintains that headlines--rather than oil-market fundamentals--have ruled the price of oil on its way to triple-digits, "and they continue (to do so) unabated," he said. Headlines loaded with the paranoiac, making words like "crisis" a part of the everyday vernacular.

Most recently, the 18-day Egyptian Crisis, which he concedes "was a bona fide crisis," is not much different than other headlining geopolitical crises that began to surface around 2004, in that they have all affected the price of oil, according to Economides.

Dominating the headlines then were the infamous Abu Ghraib photos, a vulgar display of U.S. power which "brought the fear factor in the Middle East to a crescendo"; the "swindle of the century," when former Russian President Putin (now Prime Minister) "took over" Yukos Oil Co. (as a disclaimer, Economides was a former senior advisor to the company's chief investor, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who is now "rotting" in a Siberian prison); and Chavez "making good" on his threat to renationalize the Venezuelan oil industry, while also taking the reins of multi-billion-dollar, heavy-oil projects via state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA).

Meanwhile, all of this noise has rendered supply and demand virtually impossible, Economides said.

But, while bullish oil prices can propel the oil and gas industry forward, helping to prop up capital budgets and fuel E&P projects, $100 oil has made gorillas out of leaders like Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Conversely, he joked, $40 oil reduces them to monkeys.

Meanwhile, there are some underlying facts (related to supply and demand) that are beyond the headlines, Economides indicated.

First, OPEC has little spare capacity "behind the valve," he said. Second, Saudi Arabia can double its production with proper investment, as "the geology is definitely there." Lastly, Iraq can produce 6 million barrels per day based on existing reservoirs on line. And, if you add to those the last two (licensing) rounds the Iraqi government recently awarded (from which American companies were virtually excluded, he notes), Iraq can produce 11 million barrels per day--or more than Saudi Arabia, according to Economides' estimates.

Economides doesn't believe this will happen, however. "Once the U.S. military gets out of Iraq, the internal struggle between the Sunni and the Shia would blow up, for sure, with Iran sitting on the sidelines," he said.

Iran is not so much a sideliner these days. It has cropped up in recent headlines, and is "cruising for a bruising," according to Economides, who notes that a headline that would carry enough weight to push the price of oil above $200 overnight would read as follows:

"Israel Attacks Iran"

The global oil market, ever fearful of supply disruptions in any key oil-exporting region, is afraid that the headline may not be too far off. As of this week, it is the continued geopolitical tension between these two Middle Eastern countries, in particular, that has pared a recent sell-off in WTI oil futures, which are now making a run back toward a $90 threshold on concerns that the Suez Canal may be threatened by the unrest. The rally could potentially bridge a record gap that has formed between the U.S. and European benchmarks.

Further East, however, lies the biggest geopolitical challenge that will affect the U.S. over the next several decades, according to Economides. He often describes the world’s largest energy consumer and its insatiable appetite for energy assets in the same colorful way: "China has gone berserk," he said.

A frequent visitor to the Far Eastern country, Economides speaks from the position of being a senior advisor to many key players on the energy front. "The questions I get asked a lot (in China) are 'what is the U.S.' energy policy' and 'why is the U.S. letting us do this?'," he noted. The answer to the first question brings to mind the now-commonplace word "crisis." "We don't have one," is his reply.

According to Economides, we are in the throes of an administration "so tied up in alternative energy rhetoric, it cannot see straight to look at the geopolitical challenge posed by China." To emphasize this point, he showcased an illustration of President Obama costumed as Peter Pan, flying over a "Never Never Land" of windmills (as but one example of the energy solution).

But, it's not as simple as simply believing America, whose lifeblood is oil and gas, can end its fossil-fuel dependency even a decade from now. Oil and gas supplied some 87% of U.S. energy demand 40 years ago and it is still supplying 87% today, Economides said. On the charts, this compares to only a sliver of space representing a mere 1% for solar and wind energy—the "new" energy that will somehow end America's addiction.

Sticking to fictitious characters, Voltaire's Candide couldn't see it any clearer. In this "best of all possible worlds," there are no alternatives to hydrocarbon energy resources in the foreseeable future.

Contact the author, Nancy Miller, at nmiller@hartenergy.com.