"At last count," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of HIS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (HIS CERA), "there were 137 countries represented at this event." Yergin, who opened the Monday morning session of the World Energy Congress, added, "While each of these countries are governed under different laws, there remains one law that we all must adhere to where energy is concerned, that is the law of long lead times.

"Innovation cannot always be adopted quickly," Yergin said. Referring to the current shale gas revolution taking place in the United States, or the "shale gale" as Yergin called it, "this is perhaps the biggest energy innovation since the beginning of the 21st century," he said. "Many of you may not be aware of this fact, but shale gas became revolutionary only after a 15- to 20-year period of extensive research and development."

Yergin, who is also a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, said, "For those of you who have read my book, The Prize, you are quite aware that the oil industry has a long history with a wide range of characters. However, the two most important characters in this book were supply and demand." The point, for Yergin, was clear. Effective contributions to global sustainable development will require large investments now to reap the benefits of new technology in the years to come. “We saw the impact in 2007 and 2008 of a 'demand shock' in terms of US$147 oil and the economic consequences that went with that," Yergin said. "Timely deployment of investment is necessary in the years ahead to avoid future demand shocks that can cause crises and disruptions and damage the global economy."

According to Yergin, oil supply will likely increase until 2030; demand is more likely to decrease. "Indeed, we are seeing what we call 'peak demand,' at least in terms of oil, in North America and Europe. Oil demand will not increase in those regions and is more likely to decrease."

Yergin introduced a series of Energy Scenarios defined by a comprehensive research effort by HIS CERA. The first is a "Global Redesign" in which infrastructure for newer, cleaner energy technology replaces the historical infrastructure. "Most of the world's industrial infrastructure is solidly based on methods introduced after WWII," he said. The additional alternatives included a "meta-energy scenario" featuring a renewed global economic growth and a rapid move to low-carbon technologies, and a vortex-energy scenario that could be more chaotic with continued economic turbulence and subpar international cooperation. "The scenarios do show continuing decline in energy intensity with the introduction of new, more efficient technologies," he said. "And there has never been such a great emphasis on energy efficiency around the world as is the case today. That is true whether you're talking about the United States, or China, or Europe."

Yergin stated that emerging markets showed a very different picture. "Rising incomes and large populations in developing countries will be the growth engine for world energy demand in the years ahead," he said. "It is very sobering to realize that much of the infrastructure that will be needed in 2030 to meet the energy needs of a growing world economy is still to be built," Yergin added.

World oil supplies will increase, but Yergin pointed out, "oil's share of the overall energy mix will decline." He added, "Oil demand will pose many puzzles for years to come. Although, the growth in electricity will outpace the overall growth in energy as societies depend more and more upon electricity. This raises the question of future fuel choice for generating additional electricity supplies."

Restating the importance of affordable, abundant shale gas, Yergin said, "The availability of that gas will provide greater flexibility in meeting the fuel needs of the electric power industry." According to the scenarios presented by Yergin, world demand for energy will increase by 32% to 40% within the next 20 years. "This demand growth will require investment measured in many trillions of dollars," he said, "and it will pose a dramatic challenge to all the energy industries."

Directly following Danial Yergin’s presentation, the roundtable "Meeting Energy Demand" was moderated Jamal Saghir, director of Africa Sustainable Development, World Bank. The panel included Dr. Benjamín Contreras Astiazarán, undersecretary of electricity, Government of Mexico; Wolgang Dehen, chief executive officer, Total SA (France); Dr. Johannes Teyssen, chairman, E.ON AG (Germany); and James S. Turley, chairman, Ernst & Young.

The group contented with a number of subjects including the need to develop new strategies to meet growing world energy demand to provide a sufficient supply for all. In addition, the group discussed global demographics and economic trends that must be addressed to provide energy to the nearly two billion people worldwide who still do not have adequate access to energy or sufficient resources.

The significant challenge of sustainable development was specifically addressed by the Government of Mexico's Dr. Benjamín Contreras Astiazarán. "Mexico has a specific challenge in going into the world energy market," Contreras said. He added, "In Mexico's super-giant field, Cantarell, production has declined to a third of its peak production, down to 200,000 bbl per day from 700,000 bbl per day in 2007." Although, Contreras said, "One-third of that has been replaced by from other sources." Contreras noted, "We are attempting to change our constitution to allow Pemex to offer contracts to outside company for exploration and production." As new fields are becoming more complex and harder to find, technology is needed to increase supply. "Our goal is to increase production to 3.4 MMbbl per day by 2024," Contreras said.

The overall consensus of Monday's roundtable showed that increasing challenges to the world's oil supply will ultimately provide an ample amount of economic opportunities resulting in future sustainability.