What's Affecting Oil Prices This Week (September 24, 2018)?

In the week since the last What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent rose only $0.31/bbl last week to average $78.80/bbl as WTI rose $1.34/bbl to average $70.29/bbl. Counter seasonal draws supported WTI and ongoing concerns around global supply are supporting Brent.

For the week ahead, we expect Brent to maintain its strength averaging $78.50/bbl after the OPEC/non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee meeting ended with no formal agreement to raise production and without a plan to achieve the production levels agreed to at the June OPEC meeting.

Geopolitical: Neutral

Geopolitics will be a neutral factor in the week ahead.

Dollar: Negative

The dollar will be a negative factor in the week ahead as fears of emerging market weakness stemming from a strong dollar impact demand expectations.

Trader Sentiment: Positive

Trader sentiment will be a positive factor in the week ahead as increasing Brent net longs point to ongoing concerns around supply.

Supply: Positive

Supply will be a positive factor in the week ahead, especially after the OPEC / non-OPEC meeting ended with no formal plan to raise production.

Demand: Neutral

Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead as concerns grow about future demand in light of President Trump’s latest tariffs.  

Refining: Neutral

Refining will be a neutral factor in the week ahead, as product stocks enter the winter season elevated in both Europe and North America.

Ashley Petersen

Ashley Petersen is the Lead Oil Market Analyst at Stratas Advisors, a global consulting and analytics provider for all facets of the oil and gas markets and related industries. Ashley has over 5 years’ experience analyzing crude oil markets with an emphasis on Atlantic Basin fundamentals.

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