When Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the U.S. next week, he will champion a new vision for the desert kingdom—one that is technologically savvy, religiously moderate and has a global influence beyond its oil prowess.

He should thank his hosts for the opportunity. It was the U.S. shale boom that caused a structural shift in the energy industry and induced a collapse in oil prices, forcing the kingdom to confront economic dependence on its resource riches.

Yet, limiting the kingdom’s reliance on oil revenues in the future requires higher prices today to fund sweeping economic and social reforms to help create Saudi Arabia 2.0. The risk is that buoyant crude prices allow shale producers to pump without restraint, challenging the country’s oil dominance and in the long run jeopardizing the country’s entire modernization program.

The kingdom’s existential crisis was first laid bare in 2014 and again it is grappling with this dilemma and this time there is little room for maneuver.

“Saudi Arabia has an ambitious reform agenda now. Prior comments from officials who said they don’t care if oil prices go to $20 or $30 a barrel is clearly no longer the view,” said Jason Bordoff at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “But higher prices have shown that they can bring shale supplies back even more strongly than people think.”

The U.S. shale industry suffered when oil collapsed in 2014, but a rebound in prices—led by production cuts orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia—has breathed new life into a sector that has become a lot more efficient. U.S. production is overtaking the kingdom’s with the U.S. output tipped to crest 11 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2019.

Mohammed Al Tuwaijri, Saudi Arabia’s minister of economy and planning, told the Financial Times that active oil market management has to be part of the kingdom’s future with officials planning to funnel excess crude revenues into the $230 billion Public Investment Fund—the vehicle through which Riyadh plans to transform the economy.

The country also wants a higher long-term oil price to increase the valuation of the initial public offering of state oil company Saudi Aramco, proceeds from which are also primed for the PIF.

But even Al Tuwaijri recognizes the specter of U.S. shale production hanging over oil prices. “It depends on how the market will perform and grow, what happens in the alternative [energy] space and what happens to shale,” he said.

Nearly 4 MMbbl/d of U.S. crude is expected to hit export markets by the mid-2020s, up from just over 1 MMbbl/d in 2017, meaning it will ship similar levels to Iraq and Canada, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The industry is debating whether the world will be able to absorb these volumes and how global crude flows will redirect.

With the kingdom cutting production, there are signs that its crude market share is under threat in its key markets. “Some of our barrels to China have gone away,” said one trader for Saudi Aramco.

China surpassed the UK and the Netherlands to become the second-largest destination for US crude oil exports in 2017, accounting for a fifth of the 527,000 bbl/d total year-over-year increase in foreign sales. Chinese refiners say the trend will continue as Beijing seeks to partially address US president Donald Trump’s complaints about the trade deficit between the two countries.

“China is looking to diversify its imports and they are more interested in increasing the US component,” says one person working for a Chinese refiner. “The political relationship is top of the agenda.”

The International Energy Agency forecasts that the U.S. will cover most of the world’s demand growth over the next three years. As U.S. supply surges, the world’s need for OPEC's crude is forecast to fall below current production rates in 2019 and 2020.

Saudi Arabia is responding by expanding refining capacity around the world, from the US to China, to lock in export customers and is increasing its capabilities in petrochemicals to derive more value from each barrel of oil.

More Saudi oil will also be needed if production from other OPEC members falls short of expectations. The kingdom is advocating an overhaul of the Iran nuclear deal with Western powers, which could include new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.

But Saudi Arabia is mostly relying on stronger global economic growth, rising oil consumption and natural decline rates at existing fields to drive demand for the kingdom’s crude, according to two people briefed by Saudi officials.

Prince Mohammed himself believes prices will be “significantly” higher next year because of these factors alone, one person says.

“We should not be scared,” said Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih in Davos in January, holding tight to a view that argues shale alone cannot meet fast-rising demand in all but the short-term.

Gary Ross, head of global oil analytics for S&P Global Platts says that the trick for Saudi Arabia is convincing the wider world that they are committed to propping up oil prices in the long run. The supply cut agreement it has led with Russia was initially expected to be wound down in 2019, but increasingly Saudi Arabia is expected to push to extend it.

“Saudi Arabia is a victim of its own success,” added Ross. “By reducing surplus stocks they have lifted near-term prices, but future prices indicate people don’t believe they are willing to stick it out. They have to give the market confidence and say they are going to prop up value for years.”

This strategy would put it at odds with rival Iran, which believes the kingdom is underestimating shale all over again. Pushing for higher prices, at $70 a barrel or higher, is only storing up more trouble.

“Shale is still the biggest challenge to traditional producers,” said Mohammed Ali Emadi, an adviser to Iran’s national oil company.

“Although Minister Falih said shale is good for the world, it is the big new competitor. If the price goes up, shale is going to come up more and more. There is now a permanent alternative out there.”