Crude Oil Pricing Forecast Index (User Manual)

Main Window

This section allows users to visualize the OPF index price for crude oil over time.

  1. Filter by Brent or WTI Prices, or select an average of both
  2. Add to chart forecasts made by specific forecasters
  3. Limit the analysis of the index to forecasts made during specific dates
  4. Chart area: Click and drag to zoom into chart. To reset click “show all” on the top right. Use mouse rollover to see specific datapoints over time
     

Forecaster Predictions & Past Performance

This section allows users to see specific forecasts made by different companies for different me periods 
  1. Forecast made by major forecasters
    1. Forecasted oil price for Next Month, 3 Months, 6 Months
    2. Export table to MS Excel
    3. Name of forecaster and Hart Energy's Forecaster Index
    4. Forecasted oil price
    5. Date of the latest forecast
    6. Price change in relation to previous forecast
      1. Green Arrow: Forecaster raised their price from previous forecast
      2. Red Arrow: Forecaster lowered their price from previous forecast
    7. Compare individual forecaster's prediction to Hart Energy's OPF Index
      1. Green Plus: Price is higher than forecasted by the OPF
      2. Red Minus: Price is lower than forecasted by the OPF
         
  2. Historical performance for major forecasters

    1. Past forecasted oil price for This Month, Past 3 Months, Past 6 Months
    2. Name of forecaster
    3. Accuracy of the forecast compared to actual oil price

    4. Number of predictions recorded by the OPF Index
       

Forecasters and their OPF Index trust score 

  1. This section allows users to view the major forecasters sorted by their “trust score”, (trust Score is calculated dynamically by the OPF Index based on their accuracy in predicting oil prices).
    1. Best and most trusted forecasters
    2. Worst forecasters
    3. OPF Index trust score vs best forecasters
       

Volume of Forecast Collected by the OPF Index 

  1. This section allows users to view the number of predictions collected as part of the OPF Index algorithm.
    1. Total number of predictions by forecasters
    2. Predictions by forecasters for each oil pricing market (Brent/WTI)
    3. Predictions by oil pricing markets (Brent/WTI or General-Non specified)

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