Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) is upping the ante on its production expectations for 2017 and plans to have the bankroll to make it happen.

Noble projects a 17% spike in its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) production over the next five years, topping out at daily production of 540,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d) in 2017, it said during a Dec. 6 media event in Houston.

Noble’s net risked resources have risen to 9.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBoe), up 34% since 2011. Overall, company proven reserves are projected to increase 114% over 5 years, Noble officials said.

And discretionary cash flow is expected to balloon to $7 billion by 2017, a CAGR of 21%.

“We’re a company that, while we’re large, we’re still capable of growing at a very high rate,” said Charles D. Davidson, Noble Energy's Chairman and CEO. “We’re also an independent, but we have projects that are very often seen in a major portfolio.”

Those projects include multibillion-dollar projects, international ventures and deep water drilling.

In 2013, Noble’s budget calls for $3.9 billion capital program expenditures. It estimates a production range of 270-282 MBoe/d in 2013 — a growth rate of 20%, after adjustments for 2012 divestments.

Noble officials also updated discoveries and projects in the United States and around the world on Dec. 6.

The Houston-based company said its horizontal Niobrara program in the DJ Basin of north central Colorado has “evolved into a top-tier U.S. oil play” and that the company will accelerate drilling to more than 500 horizontal wells annually and net production of 175MBoe/d in the next five years.

Net recoverable resources are now estimated at 2.1 BBoe, a 60% increase from 2011 projections. The company has identified 9,500 horizontal well locations.

On average, nine rigs will be used to drill about 300 wells in 2013. Current production is nearly 90 MBoe/d with 60% liquids, but output is expected to rise to more than 110 MBoe/d by the end of 2013.

In October, Wells Fargo downgraded Noble’s stock to “Market Perform” from “Outperform,” citing, among other concerns, worries that midstream capacity would limit the play.

Davidson and other Noble officials expressed confidence that infrastructure wouldn’t be a problem.

In the Marcellus shale, Noble’s stake continues to improve. Since its joint venture in September 2011, production has more than doubled to about 140 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d). Noble Energy and its partner are focused on accelerating the development of the wet gas areas while maintaining a lower level of activity in the dry gas areas.

Resources estimates have increased 41% to 10 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe), the company said.

Overseas, Noble remains the only significant energy producer in terms of hydrocarbon energies for Israel, Davidson said. Development of the largest offshore project in company history is continuing.

Rising natural gas demand among Israeli electricity producers and industrial consumers has generated demand for natural gas. The Tamar project, with first production scheduled for April 2013, is expected to average approximately 700 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) with a peak capacity of nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).

Despite concerns by analysts that regional instability could affect Noble’s offshore activities, Davidson said its ultra-deepwater operations have been “extremely reliable” and that Israel has provided the company protection.

“We haven’t seen, for instance, interruptions as a result of any kind of instability issues,” Davidson said. “We’re careful on security, but at the same time that country knows how to do it and does it very well.”

Noble’s Deepwater Gulf of Mexico prospects will continue to contribute to the company’s performance.
Noble’s future plans continue to be ambitious.

A recent discovery at Big Bend and successful appraisal at Gunflint, in the Gulf of Mexico, has added two projects expected to be sanctioned for development in 2013.

The company is also exploring new venture plays in the Falkland Islands, Nevada, Nicaragua and elsewhere. Discovery has been a key to company success, adding a net 2.8 BBoe from 2007 to 2012.

The Galapagos project continues to outperform the company’s expectations. The three-well project came online in June with rates at 40% above initial estimates. It has a net present value of $1.4 billion before taxes.

The recent discovery at Big Bend in the Rio Grande area discovered oil in excellent reservoir comparable to Galapagos and has gross resource range of 30 to 65 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe).

With new avenues in international markets, continued exploration and rapid growth, Davidson said Noble clearly “is not a one-trick pony.”