Robert Gates, who has a world of experience as former U.S. secretary of defense and director of the Central Intelligence Agency, confesses that he's not much of an expert when it comes to shale extraction.

"But through several decades in Washington, D.C., including many trips to testify before Congress, I am very familiar with gaseous exchanges of many kinds -- above all venting steam and super-heated air. Now if we can just figure out a way to harness that some of our energy problems would be solved," he quipped at Hart Energy's DUG Eagle Ford conference in San Antonio on Oct. 11.

Gates, the keynote speaker at an event that attracted 4,200 people, shared his thoughts about the state of affairs of some key countries and regions overseas -- areas that he called "important for America's national security but also places and developments that have a significant impact on the business you are in, as most fall into the category of being major producers of energy, growing consumers of energy or increasing vulnerable areas through which energy supplies must travel."

With the end of the Cold War, the United States was the world's only surviving superpower -- a "political, military and economic colossus," Gates said. "What we did not realize was that the seeds of future trouble were already growing. A violent extremist group, al-Qaida, was establishing itself in Afghanistan and Pakistan and would launch its first attack on the World Trade Center in February 1993."

Six people died in the 1993 attack in which a truck bomb was detonated below the North Tower of the World Trade Center in New York. Other terror attacks occurred in the mid-1990s, including the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and the USS Cole in Yemen.

"In the wake of America's victory in the Cold War, other nations increasingly resented our singular dominance and our growing penchant for telling others how to behave both at home and abroad. Not surprisingly, many looked for opportunities to limit our seemingly complete freedom and determination to shape the world as we saw fit. In short, our moment alone in the sun was bound to cause wide-spread resentment and lead other nations to respond," he said.

"When the Twin Towers, those symbols of America wealth and influence, came down on Sept. 11, 2001, many governments and peoples -- some publicly, many more privately -- actually welcomed the calamity that had befallen the United States. In their eyes, an arrogant and powerful giant had been deservingly conquered."

A decade later, the United States, while it faces serious economic challenges at home, is also confronted with significant foreign-policy issues. Gates gave his take on China, Russia and the Middle East, particularly Iran.

China

Is China a friend or rival of the United States? Both, Gates said. He emphasized that it is in the best interest of both countries not to become enemies.

"I don't claim many far-sighted predictions, but some 25 years ago I observed that if you think dealing with a communist China is a challenge -- just wait until we deal with the quasi-capitalists. The challenge is how to deal with China's return to global power status, how to encourage and pressure China into becoming a responsible state in world affairs and abide by the norms observed by the U.S., Europe and other developing countries," he said.

"Let me be clear. China's rise is not due to America's problems in the last decade. China has been on this upward trajectory for at least a quarter of a century. [The United States'] difficulties reinforce the views of those in China who see the mark of history bending in their direction. Whether their rise is accompanied by our decline, in my view, depends a lot more of what Americans do than what China does."

Russia

With Vladimir Putin poised to regain the presidency, Russia's relationship with the United States will become even more strained, according to Gates.

"Current president (Dmitry) Medvedev recognizes Russia's shortcomings, and seems to understand what must be done to modernize the country. I believe he would move Russian toward the future. Unfortunately, as you have seen in the news recently, Prime Minister Putin has decided that Medvedev will not run for president next year, and instead he -- Putin -- will ascend once more to the presidency in an election in which the outcome is a foregone conclusion. And Putin is likely to govern Russia until 2024, longer than any leader since Stalin," he said.

"Putin is all about Russia's past -- lost pride, lost power, lost empire. I believe he does not grasp or understand Russia's problems or have any idea how to address them. President George W. Bush said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. I looked into Putin's eyes and I saw a stone-cold killer.

"At the time, Russia, its nuclear arsenal notwithstanding, does not pose a significant security threat to the United States. Under Putin, we can expect more antagonism and more attempts to thwart America's influence around the globe combined with more bullying of its smaller neighbors. And I would add that you can expect more arbitrary behavior toward foreign investors, especially those interested in Russia’s natural resources."

Middle East

U.S. troops, for the most part, will be out of Iraq by the end of December. At that time, the Iraqis will determine their own fate, Gates remarked. However, the situation in Iran is, at best, sticky.

"Today, Iran is pressing ahead with its nuclear weapons program, developing missiles of ever-greater range, attempting to exert influence in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and engaging in subversion across the entire region," Gates said.

"Some say we should take out the nuclear sites in Iran with a military strike, but if only it were that simple. The Iranians may be fanatics but they're not stupid. The Iraqis have dispersed their nuclear program to multiple sites, many of them in urban areas and deep underground. I suspect there are a number we have not yet identified.

"Their ability to close the Persian Gulf to oil exports is significant. Just a few sunken ships in the right places or a few attacks on oil supertankers can accomplish that. Or they can accomplish the same objective by attacking the oil facilities of other countries in the Gulf."

In conclusion, Gates said he thinks that Americans are the masters of their own fate.

"Whether we sustain our global, economic, cultural and military pre-eminence depends not on the successes or failures of what other countries do, but on what we choose to do -- on the decisions we make and the courage, determination and unity we demonstrate. If the United States slides from pre-eminence it will be because we failed and not because others succeeded."

Contact the author, Mike Madere, at mmadere@hartenergy.com.