Record oil and gas prices helped independent producers increase their overall stock prices dramatically this past year. A comparison of the 35 upstream independents' overall share price within the Petroleum Finance Week Index shows a 119% increase between Dec. 30, 1999, and Dec. 28, 2000. That provided much of the momentum as the overall index of oil, gas and related stocks rose 10.66% year-to-year. The improvement was even more striking since it occurred against a backdrop of general markets softening. For the first time since PFW began to track oil, gas and related stocks, its year-end index improved as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500 lost ground. The Nasdaq index, meanwhile, lost nearly half its value. "Things look great," says William L. Randol, senior oil analyst at Banc America Securities LLC. "Oil and gas prices are wonderful. Refining margins are pretty good. The companies almost have to hide earnings when conditions are so favorable. That might not be the case with George W. Bush as president, but executives clearly were nervous about reporting anything too bullish while Bill Clinton was in the White House." U.S. independent producers were the biggest winners in last year's turbulent energy capital markets. Robert Morris, E&P analyst for Salomon Smith Barney Inc. , says the stocks in his coverage group climbed 124%. Paul R. Ferretti of Wasserstein Perella Securities Inc. says his universe of companies finished 125% higher. "The benefits of higher oil and gas prices turned out be greater than most people expected," Morris says. "Clearly, natural gas prices did most of the heavy lifting." Ferretti says, "I expect 2001 to be another good year-not like 2000, but a 25% to 50% improvement. It could be at the upper end of that range if there is an expansion of multiples."
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