What if we stepped back two years and evaluated our forward projections on five dominant themes then, and measured them against what we know to be true today?

That's exactly what Rusty Braziel did at this year's Benposium, the annual commodities market analysis by the minds of Bentek Energy. Braziel, a long-time energy marketer, trader and energy data provider, was making a cameo appearance as a former co-owner of Bentek. He currently runs his own energy consulting shop, RBN Energy, in Houston.

So, what happened in those two years, and what did we learn?

Theme 1: Bakken crude oil production. In 2011—when Bentek made projections at Benposium that year—the firm forecast Bakken oil production would rise from 200,000 to 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2016, noting the lack of pipeline capacity as a factor.

“We're there now,” said Braziel. “We're already at the production levels in 2013 we thought we'd be at in 2016. Production increased twice as fast as we thought.”

One reason: Rail flipped places with pipelines. Building terminals before pipelines could respond, rail now accounts for up to 70% of Bakken crude oil transport and is not going away in the foreseeable future, especially as many producers have commitments to the rail terminals.

“Rail is going to continue to move barrels at the expense of pipelines and will compete for market share heads up. Rail and pipelines are going to continue to be in a dogfight for as long as we can see, and not just in the Bakken. We didn't see that two years ago,” Braziel said.

Theme 2: Marcellus/Utica natural gas production. Bentek predicted in 2011 Appalachia production would grow by 3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day, to 8 Bcf per day by 2015. “We're there now,” Braziel said, again.Beyond, in fact, with 11 Bcf already flowing out of the play each day. “If Bentek had shown that graph two years ago, people would have thought we were out of our minds. It couldn't possibly happen that way, but it has.”

That reality is bringing a paradigm shift, and fast. Braziel's graph of natural gas supply and demand in the Northeast crosses paths this summer. “That means gas will be flowing not into the Northeast, but out of the Northeast.That completely changes things in terms of flows of gas in the US”

By 2016, gas flows will go east to west and north into Canada, the opposite of today. “Pipelines that have traditionally flowed gas into that market better find something else to do with themselves, because they won't be needed any more. And Marcellus and Utica producers better look at firm transportation to get out of that marketplace, because it's going to be a traffic jam,” he forewarned.

Theme 3: Eagle Ford crude. Bentek in 2011 boldly projected Eagle Ford flows would rise from virtually nothing to 900,000 barrels per day by 2016. Of course, “we're there now,” deadpanned Braziel.

The surprise? A chunk of that Eagle Ford crude is not crude, but 45 to 75 API gravity condensate—virtually natural gasoline. “Refiners on the Gulf Coast need this like a hole in the head,” he said, as they are already overwhelmed with light sweet crude. Export will be the only answer.

Theme 4: Natural gas liquids production. In 2011, the projection was 3.2 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs) by 2016 and—we're there now. With proposed petrochemical plants promising demand but several years away, “We can't use the NGLs. We're talking exporting more than 1 million barrels per day of NGLs by 2018.”

Theme 5: Natural gas prices. While Bentek's 2011 forecast for natural gas production was nearly spot on with today's numbers, the price scenario missed. “We had it above $5 for 2013,” noted Braziel. Today, Bentek doesn't see natgas hitting $5 until 2018. The difference? An unusually warm winter two years ago. “No matter how many numbers you crunch, weather trumps everything. What actually happened had no bearing to the market.”

But what happens to the forward curve if more gas-fired power generation comes online during summers, and LNG exports began flowing out of the Gulf Coast close to the Henry Hub?

“We could be looking at a situation where the whole structure of the forward curve changes. The traditional structure of forward gas prices might not survive all the changes coming into the market.”

So what have we learned? “Oil and gas producers can exceed any rational production forecast,” Braziel said. “It would not be shocking to look back in two years and see the same phenomenon.”