The world is a challenging place today for energy operators and investors. "Rotating chaos is now the norm," Tom Petrie, chairman and co-founder of investment-banking firm Petrie Parkman & Co. told a group of NAPE Expo attendees in Houston recently. Many issues and scenarios could form a plot premise for a hydrocarbon-deprived nightmare: Saudi Arabia (resource maturity, Al Qaeda, royal succession), Iran (nuclear ambitions, hostility toward Israel, resource maturity, gas and pipeline ambitions), Syria (pariah state, Russian support), Nigeria (continued labor/social unrest, deepwater potential) and Iraq (constitution, Sistani's withdrawal call, energy-development security). "And, if we don't have anything to think about, there's Hugo Chavez, and ...Vladimir Putin," he added. Additional plot points: a decline in the U.S. dollar becomes a crisis, an escalation in Chinese/Taiwanese confrontation, a Russian oil and gas export shortfall, an acceleration of Saudi production problems, North Korean nuclear exports, the return of Afghanistani warlord dominance, civil war in Iraq and a hard economic landing in China. And, U.S. energy policy is...? "We've certainly had a long tradition of dysfunctional energy policy," Petrie said. One bright spot in increased U.S. energy-supply security is the permitting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Otherwise, "don't count on governmental solutions." Actually, fears of a glut of U.S. natural gas supply "will be a world-class head fake," he said. End-of-heating-season storage levels have been strong, "in fact too good." Is there a looming glut? "The long-term outlook with respect to gas is still very, very bright." But, the worst of Atlantic Basin hurricanes may be ahead, he added. And, volatility in oil prices has grown during this decade, ranging from as low as $18 a barrel to more than $60. From 1995-99, oil prices generally ranged from less than $12 a barrel to some $28. "The pattern of higher highs and higher lows is with us," Petrie said. One sector can rest easy. "Notwithstanding Congressional proposals for a windfall-profits tax, the oil-price outlook and prospective investment returns for energy projects should be good to excellent." Is the energy industry in its early, middle or late years of this cycle? Petrie expects we probably are in no more than the first third of what may be a 14- or 20-year cycle. "This really is a super-cycle.