While the economic climate had a decidedly dampening effect on Summer NAPE exhibitors and attendees this year, the clear winners were the bread-and-butter prospect generators. These ever-optimistic geologists and small independents looking to share their prizes—the backbone of the premise of NAPE—owned the floor this year, absent the noise of a host of service provider and larger E&P booths. And despite the less-than-maddening crowds, several told me they were pleased with their success in moving prospects.

Yet one COO with a company selling down prospects at NAPE suggested the ability to identify quality amplitude plays, generated by 3-D seismic data like the kind they were offering, might be a dying art. Many geologists and geoscientists that he presents drilling opportunities to today just don’t understand the nuances of what they’re looking at, he lamented.

“The ability to understand 3-D seismic data—to interpret it and to define a quality prospect versus just an amplitude in space—is becoming a lost art,” said David Brooks, COO for Choice Exploration Inc., an Arlington, Texas-based, Gulf Coast conventional explorer formed in 1997. Choice was offering an interest in a Cook Mountain prospect in Liberty County, Texas, and a Marble Falls opportunity in Jack County.

The problem stems from young geophysicists graduating and going straight to work for large independents or majors, which have turned their capital firepower toward shale development. And shales, being source rocks, don’t have amplitudes. Instead, microseismic is becoming the tool of choice for coming-of-age geophysicists, who see resource plays as factories to manufacture hydrocarbons.

“A lot of people don’t have the background to interpret seismic data and grasp why things work and why they just don’t. I see a real disconnect in the future because there aren’t a lot of people working 3-D for conventional prospects, and you’re going to have a shortfall in manpower that is versed in practical application of 3-D in a sandstone environment.”

For a while, 3-D seismic was all the rage, a step-change from 2-D seismic and the tool for explorers in search of those hydrocarbon-bearing bright spots. But as good as it is, 3-D fell by the wayside when producers swooned over a new love affair with shale.

But it’s not just the young guns lacking in amplitudinal prowess; many older geophysicists fail to keep up with the rapidly changing seismic technology as well, Brooks said, and simply don’t understand the data inputs or how to derive the proper outputs. “Technology has outrun these guys.”

The result is a growing disconnect when presenting deals. Screeners may have the seismic data in hand, but more and more they don’t have the background to recognize perfectly good prospects.

“We have this great tool and people don’t know how to use it anymore. Ten years ago, if you showed somebody a blatantly obvious 3-D seismic deal, they were all over it. Today, half of them have a deer-in-the-headlights look.”

He recounted a deal offered with 50 Bcf potential in which 30 takers passed before one took it. “When we show our deals to a geophysicist that understands 3-D seismic, they take our deals. If someone comes in and doesn’t understand 3-D, it’s in one ear and out the other.”

But with the bounty to be had from shale, do conventional plays even matter anymore?

“Certainly, the mega fields have been identified and drilled, but there is still plenty of opportunity within the amplitude sector. You just have to have the datasets and the knowledge to work it.”

And at a 5:1 or 6:1 return on investment, “you can still get a lot of bang for your buck.”

In 2007, Choice found its big discovery in Cottonwood North Field in Liberty County. The seven-well development has reserve potential of 50 billion cubic feet of gas and 2 million barrels of oil.

“That dataset had been out 10 years at that point. The data wasn’t new, but it’s only as good as the interpreter.”

On one hand, the lack of experienced prospect generators reduces the competitive field for Choice as it scours the datasets. On the other hand, it’s a pain in the project when they want to sell down the working interest.

“There is still plenty of meat on the bone for independents to find amplitude plays along the Gulf Coast for the next five to 10 years. The fields are not as big as they once were, but there’s still room for quality independents to make a good living.”

Will amplitude exploration die when this generation of geophysicists with 3-D expertise retire?

“That’s a strong possibility,” Brooks said. “We may be chasing a dinosaur and don’t want to admit it, but we’re trying to keep this dinosaur from going extinct sooner rather than later. It’s a dying breed.”

If you’re not chasing conventional, chase us to San Antonio Sept. 12-14 for the unconventional DUG Eagle Ford conference and exhibition, where we will discuss play economics, efficiencies and technologies. Visit DUGEagleFord.com.