Even before the hullabaloo in the Middle East supercharged oil prices into the $100-per-barrel range, producers were revamping asset mixes to grab as much of the wet stuff as possible, to bolster cash flows and investor confidence in the face of languid natural gas prices.

And with Lower 48 oil prospects in limited supply, technologically challenged to extract or politically challenged to access, condensate-saturated gas plays are equally popular, ancillary gas production notwithstanding. If it’s wet, it sings.

But what if that is in fact wrong thinking? Should smart money be chasing gas these days?

That’s the sentiment of Sylvia Barnes and her I-banking team at Madison Williams. Barnes, managing director and head of energy investment banking, foresees a great contrarian opportunity for those who have the fortitude to play natural gas.

To illustrate her point, Barnes compares forward-pricing outlooks for oil and natural gas from 2002 to the present with actual strip pricing, and begs the question: “What makes you think you should have confidence in these curves?”

When overlaid, the smooth-line forward curve contrasts with the volatile strip, and rarely does the prediction match the reality. The natural gas price today is half of what was expected in 2008, for example.

“The forward curve is consistently wrong. Just how wrong will the strip be this time?”

Gas pricing is cyclical, she points out, and for two years now prices have bumped along the bottom. “Is gas at a cyclical low point? If so, then the downside is limited,” she says.

With oil surging and gas lagging, the oil-to-gas ratio remains disconnected at 18:1, far removed from its traditional Btu equivalency of 6:1. Quentin Hicks, director of investment banking for Madison Williams, draws two investment-return examples based on this premise: What if the oil-to-gas ratio returns to 15:1 by 2014? “Very possible,” he says.

It can happen one of two ways. First, gas prices can increase relative to oil, or vice versa, oil prices can decrease relative to gas. In 2014, the forward curve has oil at $98.98 and gas at $5.58.

Example 1: Gas increases relative to oil. A 15:1 ratio implies gas will increase to $6.58. An operator with oil assets can do nothing and get the appreciation of oil going from $88 to $98 over three years, earning a 3.7% return.

If, instead, the operator were to sell oil in today’s market and invest in gas, then hold it for three years, that would earn a 16.5% return. The net would be 13%. “Not terrific,” says Hicks, “but if we get to a 10:1 ratio, that’s a 30% return.”

Example 2: Oil decreases relative to gas. If the forward gas price is correct and, instead, oil comes down to a 15:1 ratio, the actual price in 2014 will be $83.70. “You would lose money in this case by holding oil and doing nothing.” If, instead, the owner of oil sells the oil and buys gas, they would gain 10%, with a net of about 12%. At a 10:1 ratio that return is 25%.

“The bottom line, in either case, is that it makes sense to sell oil and buy gas if you believe that the ratio is going to converge over the next several years.”

The Madison Williams gang believes a buyer’s market exists now for gas assets, specifically smaller gas deals, and particularly conventional-gas opportunities.

“We think conventional-gas deals are the best deals in town,” says Hicks. “This asset class is out of favor—there are not a lot of people chasing conventional gas right now.”

Hicks says today, gas buyers are often able to buy proved developed producing properties at a PV-10 discount rate, and not pay anything for proved undeveloped locations (PUDs).

“This means that buyers can sit on production and wait on gas prices to improve before drilling PUDs,” says Hicks. “It’s basically a free option on PUDs.”

Paul Coppola, managing director of institutional equities, says the trend of historical legacy gas companies flipping to liquids is resulting in high-quality gas acres being reclassified from proved to probable reserves when they don’t plan to drill within a five-year plan.

“At some point those assets probably come on the block, and in some pretty good basins: the Rockies, the Midcontinent, East Texas and the Gulf Coast.”

But it takes guts, patience and a long-term view to buy gas now. “If you’re a public company CEO, pursuing a gas transaction will be difficult from a shareholder perspective,” says Hicks. “If you pursue these assets you’ll need to do a good job explaining yourself.”