The sea change that has taken place in the U.S. petroleum picture is dramatic, to be sure, but when did this party get started, and more important, how long will it continue? What kind of oil price will still be available at the buffet next year?

Last year, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fetched an average price of about $98.This was its highest value since 2008, even though at the same time, world supply increased from a once-unlikely place: the good ol' U.S.A Domestic production rose last year by an astounding 1 million barrels per day—an increase larger than that posted by all other oil-producing countries combined. For several weeks, our home-grown production actually exceeded our imports—another milestone, and one not seen in about 20 years, according to the Energy Information Administration. This feat also led to a side benefit, which was to shrink the federal trade deficit.

But, with our domestic demand going down slightly thanks to conservation measures, and China's economy flat-lining, and yet with oil supply rising, you would have expected global crude oil prices to soften. In fact, they were fairly stable, becaU.S.e higher U.S. output offset production that fell elsewhere. Within the OPEC cartel alone, 2013 production decreased by 1.8 million barrels a day.

Looking at EIA data going back five years, 2009 seems to have been the turning point. Horizontal wells stimulated through hydraulic fracturing in the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales, followed more recently by wells in West Texas, turned the tide during this time frame. U.S. production started rising steadily in 2009 after the low point of the financial crisis, and jU.S.t when widespread U.S.e of the new technologies really swept through the indU.S.try.

The relationship between WTI and Brent crude changed as well. Before 2009, Brent regularly commanded less money than WTI did. Since that year, however, the value of Brent barrels has steadily gone up in value compared to WTI.

Despite price differentials, transportation bottlenecks and flat U.S. demand, the oil production juggernaut looks set to continue—unless and until producers get a price signal they can't ignore.

The fourth-quarter conference call season jU.S.t now ending provided plenty of color behind the 2013 surge, and oil producers gave U.S. clues to the road ahead. Continental Resources, for example, grew its proved reserves last year a stunning 38% to 1.08 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with the Bakken shale making up 741 million BOE of that. Some two-thirds of its reserves total is still proved undeveloped, so the Oklahoma City company has a long way to go before it gets through some 1,300 net PUD locations.It expects to grow its daily production another 26% to 30% at the minimum this year. More pad drilling equals more oil production.So do drill-bits turning in the varioU.S. Three Forks benches and the new SCOOP play in Oklahoma.

Oasis Petroleum reported its proved oil resources in North Dakota rose 59%. Concho Resources, meanwhile, is another fast-growing oil producer. The Midland company reported similarly robU.S.t results, with production up 13% and a plan to ramp up its horizontal rig count this year. More horizontal wells and longer laterals equal more production.

In Midland County, Diamondback Energy reported a single well that could have an EUR of 1 million BOE. Its year-end proved reserves were up 58%.

These numbers on the scoreboard reflect far more than the price of oil at year-end. They indicate growth in U.S. oil production through savvier completions, longer laterals and so on—positive changes that will last whatever the price of oil becomes.

Can this kind of gold-medal performance continue?RBC Capital Markets thinks so.In a recent report led by the co-head of global energy research, Kurt Hallead, RBC projected three more years of significant growth in domestic oil production.How much?On the order of another 700,000 to 950,000 barrels a day annually to 2016.For 2014, RBC forecasts $94 oil and for 2015, $92.

However, production increases in the Eagle Ford shale and Bakken core will start to level off in 2016, RBC says.The growth rate in oil production in the Permian will continue longer, through to 2020.

“We think the U.S. becomes the largest global oil producer in late 2016 and reaches 11million barrels per day in 2018,” the RBC report says. Most likely, light oil imports are gone by 2015—and the following year, increasing light crude production will overwhelm the U.S. refinery system—if there is no approval to export this crude.

“We expect U.S. E&Ps will need to curtail activity starting in 2016, if exports are not approved,” the research team warns.

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