Energy consumption is expected to grow 1.3% annually during the next two decades, rising from 98 quadrillion Btu in 1999 to 127 in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its latest yearly energy outlook. Future economic growth will be more robust than the EIA projected last year, prompting government analysts to raise energy consumption estimates in the latest forecast. Energy consumption in 2020 will be 6 quads, or 5%, more than the EIA's previous annual forecast. The figure assumes a 3% average annual U.S. economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product. The agency had based its forecast on 2.1% annual economic growth, a year earlier. The upward revision is due in part to "a more optimistic view of long-run economic growth" and to "statistical and definitional differences in the National Income and Products Account," the EIA says. "The outlook is a glimpse of what might happen during the next decades," says EIA acting administrator Mark Mazur. "It is not a forecast of what is most likely to happen. We're trying to put together a set of plausible assumptions for how the energy sector will evolve." The agency suggests world oil demand will grow to 117 million barrels per day in 2020, from 76 million in 1999. The 2020 figure is 5 million barrels per day more than the previous-year forecast. In the U.S., demand will be 25.8 million, up from 19.5 million, led by 1.8% annual growth in the transportation sector. "This is the fastest growing of all our sectors," Mazur says. Residential-sector growth is expected to average 1.2% annually; commercial-sector, 1.4%; and industrial-sector, 1.0%. In transportation, advanced technology vehicles, such as fuel cells and hybrids, play a very small role in the forecast. "We do see these technologies showing up in the marketplace, but the dominant form of transportation is the petroleum-fueled vehicle," Mazur says. By 2020, new-car fuel efficiency will gain less than one mile per gallon, and new-truck efficiency, two.
Recommended Reading
E&P Highlights: Feb. 26, 2024
2024-02-26 - Here’s a roundup of the latest E&P headlines, including interest in some projects changing hands and new contract awards.
Rystad: More Deepwater Wells to be Drilled in 2024
2024-02-29 - Upstream majors dive into deeper and frontier waters while exploration budgets for 2024 remain flat.
Deepwater Roundup 2024: Offshore Europe, Middle East
2024-04-16 - Part three of Hart Energy’s 2024 Deepwater Roundup takes a look at Europe and the Middle East. Aphrodite, Cyprus’ first offshore project looks to come online in 2027 and Phase 2 of TPAO-operated Sakarya Field looks to come onstream the following year.
Exxon Versus Chevron: The Fight for Hess’ 30% Guyana Interest
2024-03-04 - Chevron's plan to buy Hess Corp. and assume a 30% foothold in Guyana has been complicated by Exxon Mobil and CNOOC's claims that they have the right of first refusal for the interest.
Pitts: Heavyweight Battle Brewing Between US Supermajors in South America
2024-04-09 - Exxon Mobil took the first swing in defense of its right of first refusal for Hess' interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, but Chevron isn't backing down.