Three events in early February reminded me of the variety inherent in the global oil patch and the interplay of macro-geopolitical factors that affect players large and small. At NAPE, more than 12,000 people mingled to view some 1,250 booths of drilling prospects, producing assets and capital providers. So many attended the international forum the day before that additional tables had to be set for lunch, where Canadian officials spotlighted their E&P opportunities. The following week, Cambridge Energy Research Associates marked its 25th CERAWeek in Houston with appearances by the head of CNOOC, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi and other notables. They discussed how to increase oil supply and reduce demand. But alternative fuels began to get more attention as well. The same week in Florida, the Independent Petroleum Association of America held its Small-Cap Oil & Gas Investment Symposium. Small producers (whose market caps ranged from less than $50 million to $1 billion) told 300 investors and analysts why it's not too late to jump on the bandwagon. Frankly, that bandwagon is getting so crowded it could end up in the ditch. Energy bankers at the event marveled at oversubscribed offerings closed in less than 48 hours. CEOs strained not to sound overly optimistic as their stock prices outran net asset values. "We're a small company on steroids, with big-company discipline and experience" said Richard Dole, chairman, CEO and president of PetroSearch Energy Corp. Formed in 2003, it began trading on the OTC Bulletin Board last November and acquired an interest in the expansion area of the Barnett Shale recently. For most of the 40 presenters, the future is tied to unconventional resource plays: tight gas, shales, coalbed methane. On the larger energy stage, the future is already here. It came up fast. BP's John Browne stood at a podium at Stanford University a few years ago to fire one of the first warning shots of change, when he boldly declared BP is going green. Call it crafty PR if you like, but BP has reduced its global emissions ahead of the deadline he set, ramped up its natural gas business and alternative fuels slate, and by the way, made a ton of money in the process. Now others are on board. Hurricanes and the recent spat between Gazprom and Ukraine have spooked energy users, who are ready to diversify supply, take alternatives more seriously and conserve. Even George W. Bush declared in his State of the Union that the U.S. must heal itself of its Middle East oil addiction by 2025. Ironic, coming from a personal friend of the Saudi royal family. At CERAWeek, Al-Naimi replied in effect, "Wait a minute. If you are going to reduce oil demand, maybe we won't add as much incremental production as we were promising just months ago." The oil industry, and by extension that includes you and me, is buffeted today by geopolitical winds every bit as strong as market forces. These factors are intertwined forever more. But in the market, robust margins and real or imagined supply shortfalls have taken hold. To fix them, are we about to act like drunken sailors on leave? A new Wood Mackenzie study says companies have announced plans to build an astonishing 66 new refineries worldwide in the next 10 years. If built-which is highly unlikely-they would add 12 million barrels a day of crude distillation capacity, not counting refinery expansions that bring the total to 18 million a day. Yet, WoodMac projects daily world oil demand will rise 15.7 million barrels by 2015. Can producers supply that many barrels in the first place? Reserves will tell the tale. You have to give Matt Simmons a lot of credit. The Houston energy banker, analyst and author warned us about world oil-supply challenges in this magazine in April 2002. He wrote of giant Middle Eastern oil fields peaking and the mysteries of their true production patterns. Ever since, he has asked to be provided more accurate, complete and transparent data from all the world's producers. The United Nations, Society of Petroleum Engineers, International Energy Agency and others are collaborating on reserve-reporting standardization now. In this overheated environment of hope-backlit by some serious long-term questions about how long we can sustain this-it is a good time to step back and reflect on the meaning of it all and where we go from here. That's why I'm excited that this year we have a great chance to do just that, as Oil and Gas Investor celebrates its 25th anniversary. It's no stretch to say that in the next 25 years, we'll go through changes more challenging and momentous than anything we've seen in the last 25-and we've seen a lot. In a special issue this July, the editors plan to take a look back, poke a few holes in pet theories, have a lot of fun and look forward. Do join us for the ride.