Can We Protect The Grid From Catastrophic Failure?

AUSTIN, Texas—The U.S. electrical grid is profoundly vulnerable to the point of being primed for catastrophic failure, speakers told a recent gathering at the Texas State Capitol.

Their fears are founded in the potency of electromagnetic pulses (EMP), which are intense bursts resulting from solar-caused effects or manmade nuclear and pulse-power devices, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Nuclear EMP has the most ubiquitous effects, according to a report by DOE, because of the combination of its broadband nature and large area coverage. No longer restricted to movies like “Ocean’s 11” or episodes of “Star Trek,” EMPs are considered a real threat and have been studied by the departments of energy and defense for decades.

“The bulk power generation and transmission system—grid for short—is one of the wonders of the world. It is so reliable that we take it absolutely for granted,” said Frank Gaffney, founder of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Security Policy. “But the fact that this contraption, if you will, was built—like the Internet— with essentially no regard whatsoever for security and the possibility that there may be forces at work – whether they’re hostile powers or whether they’re forces of nature that will disrupt this … system is an invitation to disaster.”

In fact, an “attack” has already occurred but it was not promulgated by a global bad actor such as North Korea, Iran or Russia. In 1859, two waves of a solar flare storm on the sun, known as the Carrington Event, took down the world’s telegraph network with an explosion equal to 10 billion atomic bombs, sending sparks through telegraph machines and setting fires.

Nowhere near as extensive and powerful as today’s communications network, the telegraph was nevertheless the Internet of its time and its loss created chaos, with many machines literally melting. And while the threat from solar flares cannot be predicted, the threat from terror groups or rogue governments can be to some extent, but the U.S. strategy against such a an attack is akin to France’s Maginot Line prior to World War II, said U.S. Air Force Maj. David Stuckenberg.

“Today, in much the same way, our enemies look at the United States, they look at our carrier battle groups, they look at our strong Air Force, they look at a number of things and they say, if we’re going to contend with a great power, that would be a fool’s errand to attack those strong points,” Stuckenberg said.

Stuckenberg is co-author of a 2018 study published by Air University that explored the potential of an EMP attack and concluded that the knowledge level required at the Department of Defense to deal with the threat was insufficient and that bold action was necessary.

“This is something that cannot wait and is intrinsically linked to our ability to project power as a military,” he said.

But ways to defend against an EMP crisis already exist. They just need to be implemented for the commercial grid, said Randy White, founder and retired CEO of Jaxon Engineering, which specializes in hardening facilities against EMPs.

The challenge White has faced is concern about cost. Hardening a new project typically adds about 10% to 15% to the total cost of the project, White said. Hardening existing infrastructure is more expensive but still cheaper than dealing with the aftermath of a shutdown of the grid.

“It is true that to harden everything on the grid might just be too hard but I don’t think we have to harden everything,” he said. “I think we can be smart and strategic about it.”

Spending a minimal amount to ensure rolling brown-outs might be a good start and a foundation for expansion. It would take several years to develop a fully functional system but the cost of ignoring the problem, he said, would be astronomical.

In Colorado, for example, the cost of hardening infrastructure against an EMP event would equate to $3.30 per month per ratepayer over 10 years.

“If you did nothing and you did not harden the grid and you wanted to keep all the people alive, you’d have to buy 16.5 million MREs (meals ready to eat) per day just to keep your populace alive,” White said. “That doesn’t include sanitation. For Colorado that equates to $33 billion per year.”

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com or @JHMarkman.