For oil and gas industry advocates, leasing of federal land has been equal parts clampdown, slowdown and shutdown.

President Donald Trump has suggested that federal policies will be different under his administration, which officially kicked off Jan. 20 with his inauguration.

The priority Trump has placed on energy policy, including coal, will be in the spotlight. So far, however, he hasn’t specified how they will differ from those of former President Barack Obama.

“The president has suggested access to federal lands will be different under his administration, but he has not released specific policy proposals, so we are not yet certain of the extent of possible changes,” said Clay Lightfoot, research analyst for Lower 48 Upstream Oil & Gas at Wood Mackenzie.

The federal government owns about 640 million acres of land across the U.S, largely concentrated in the West—equal to 28% of the nation’s land. About 100 million acres of onshore federal lands are available for leasing, with another 35 million onshore acres comprising current oil and gas leases.

The industry is welcoming Trump, who is seen as a friend to energy and who has nominated several oil and gas advocates and executives to his Cabinet.

"Time will tell what impacts the Trump administration will have on oil and gas development,” Lightfoot said. “Assuming the new administration's initiatives will allow them to operate confidently without facing additional regulation. But we know a lot has to take place before campaign promises turn into policy.”

LISTEN: Political Sidetrack podcast: Political Change Is In The Air

The industry advocacy groups have complained tirelessly about Obama’s attempts to hamstring oil and gas production.

Regional and national groups have complained about and fought Obama’s use of executive power to cut off access to oil and gas reserves. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has also come under fire—and been sued—for accusations that it hasn’t held auctions as the law requires. More recently, leases have been canceled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture through its Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statements.

During former President George W. Bush's eight years in office, federal oil and gas leases averaged 3.3 million acres per year, an analysis of BLM data shows. By comparison, despite the shale boom, Obama’s first seven years in office saw oil and gas leases fall to an annual average of 1.4 million acres per year.

In Bush’s first seven years in office, the BLM leased 28.7 million acres compared with Obama’s 9.9 million acres.

Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Western Energy Alliance in Denver, said in December that Obama’s administration was “rushing to get as many job-killing regulations in as possible before its final expiration” after retroactively canceling 39,490 acres of leases in Wyoming as well as similar cancelations in Colorado and Montana.

BLM director Neil Kornze has countered that the industry has thousands of permits but has only drilled a fraction of them.

“As result of the agency’s robust permitting effort in recent years, there are currently over 7,500 approved drilling permits in industry’s hands that are available for use today,” Kornze told Congress in March.

Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, noted on Jan. 6 that federal policy keeps roughly 94% of federal offshore acreage off limits to energy production, as well. That acreage could hold more than 50 billion barrels of oil and 195 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

In December, Obama blocked new oil and gas drilling in parts of the U.S. Atlantic and Arctic oceans, as well as offshore Alaska in 2015.

Even with more aggressive federal lands leasing, it’s unlikely that any particular play will “take off” due to less regulation, Lightfoot said. A significant impact on the U.S. oil market may be some time off, even with increased leasing.

Of the major areas, such as the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Marcellus, none have significant portions of federal land, apart from eastern New Mexico.

“Right now, these areas are largely in the hands of private citizens,” Lightfoot said.

Operators tend to eliminate uncertainties, such as how new wells perform or how midstream costs might affect returns.

“A lot of factors play into operator strategies of when and where to drill, but oil price is the biggest,” he said. “With prices where they are now, companies are keen to invest in areas that yield the most attractive economics—those with existing infrastructure and ample historic production to prove that sufficient oil and gas volumes are present.”

Darren Barbee can be reached at dbarbee@hartenergy.com.