Most people try to guard against confirmation bias, which, put simply, is a tendency to lay greater weight on evidence supporting or confirming an existing belief as opposed to a contrary point of view. But it can be hard to do, especially when listening to quarterly conference calls, eager to glean fresh information on industry trends.

If you’re ingrained with the old saw, “The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices,” certain comments by senior executives offering glimmers of upside for crude oil jump out at you.

Example: Core Laboratories’ CEO, David Demshur, saying the Bakken needed 115 completions per month to hold production flat, but had only 42 completions in February versus an average of 162 per month last year. No wonder, he said, that output was down by 50,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), year-over-year, in the first two months of this year.

Example: Weatherford International’s CEO, Bernard Duroc-Danner, estimating that decline rates in international reservoirs will lower production capacity by at least 1.5 MMbbl/d by the end of 2016, while U.S. production capacity will drop by 1 MMbbl/d over the same period. Meanwhile, he said, combined 2015 and 2016 global demand for oil will rise by 2 MMbbl/d.

“There isn’t capacity in operation or in existence to accommodate sustainably a swing of 4.5 million barrels per day,” said Duroc-Danner. “You can derive your own conclusion of the oil market’s prognosis.”

But what if—to counter risk of confirmation bias—we cross-check these with other sources?

According to Credit Suisse, rebalancing of oil has begun, hastened by a steeper decline in the U.S. rig count and stronger than expected OECD demand, both in the U.S. and, surprisingly, Europe. For 2015, global demand is projected to grow by 1.6%, or almost 1.3 MMbbl/d, up from 1% last year.

Two upside surprises, noted Credit Suisse, were a “surprisingly robust” recovery in European demand, running at over a 2% growth rate year-over-year in early 2015, as well as oil demand growth in China that was approaching 8% in the first quarter, excluding builds in strategic inventory.

But we are not entirely out of the woods yet, cautioned Credit Suisse in a presentation by managing director Ed Westlake and economist Jan Stuart. A decline in international activity, focused on some 58 MMbbl/d of international, non-OPEC volumes, is underway. However, the pace of decline in this activity may not accelerate more meaningfully until 2017, they said.

U.S. production growth may need to remain low in 2016 to draw down excess inventories, according to Credit Suisse. But this is likely already a cold reality in light of recent restrained cash flows. For example, to achieve the 2014 level of production growth, some 80 U.S. E&Ps spent $124 billion last year, but that same group is projected by Credit Suisse to generate only $58 billion of cash flow in 2015.

Meanwhile, for global fields already in decline (i.e., excluding relatively young fields where production is rising), Credit Suisse has estimated an annual decline of around 4 to 5 MMbbl/d. These decline rates tend to accelerate when industry cash flows are constrained. And it is these oil declines that must be offset by existing production growth, including from shale and other fields being developed.

The upshot is that even assuming Saudi production continues at current levels of 10.3 MMbbl/d—and that Iranian exports grow successively in July, September and then January of next year—there will be a substantial “call on American shale” in 2017, as well as for several years thereafter, according to Credit Suisse.

This assumes global oil demand growth of about 1.5 MMbbl/d for each of 2015 and 2016 and that an adequate price signal is given in oil to bring forth the supply needed to meet demand.

What oil price will be needed?

Even with technology improvements and high-grading of assets, “I’m pretty convinced that the oil price required to generate that level of spending is going to be higher than we’re seeing this year,” Westlake said. Credit Suisse’s oil price deck called for $67 and $71/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively, by the end of this year, rising to $75 and $80 per barrel a year later.

“Decline rates don’t disappear overnight,” said Westlake. Conditions will be such that “shale has to get back into its full mojo, as we saw in 2013 and 2014, and start delivering that over one million barrels per day of liquids growth that the market will need.”