Prior to the beginning of last week, Stratas Advisors expected that the price of Brent crude would increase early in the week to the range of $43-$44, but then fall back below $42 later in the week.
The forecast stemmed from Stratas' view that the market would start pulling back prior to the oil producers meeting in Doha, Qatar, on April 17 to guard against the outcome not being supportive of higher prices. The actual price movement followed the advisory firm's expectations, but showed more resiliency than forecast.
The price of Brent crude started the week at $41.94 then increased to $44.69 on April 12 before declining through the remainder of the week to close the week at $43.10.
Stratas Advisors also forecasts that the Brent-WTI differential would trade between $0.50 and $1.50 with respect to the June contract. The forecast aligned with the actual price movement. The Brent-WTI differential started the week at $0.95 then widened through the week to close the week at $1.39.
For the upcoming week Stratas Advisors expects that the price of Brent crude oil will move toward $44 but will not break through the level. Additionally, Stratas are forecasting that the Brent-WTI differential will trade between $1 and $2 with respect to the June contract. Read our rationale supporting this outlook.
This weekly report is an excerpt from Stratas Advisors' Short-Term Price Outlook service analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels. For more information, please contact Stratas here.
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