For the upcoming week Stratas Advisors is forecasting that the price of Brent crude will move sideways. It also also expects the Brent-WTI differential to trade between $2 and $2.75 with respect to the March contract.
The following factors play roles in the firm’s forecast:
- While geopolitics has been having minimal influence on oil prices because of the supply overhand and excess inventory levels, geopolitics continues to get messier;
- According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, currency traders have increased their net long positions with respect to the US dollar for the third straight week;
- There is an expectation that oil traders will continue to maintain their more bullish sentiment, which is reinforced by signs that OPEC is moving forward with production cuts;
- According to the report from Baker Hughes, drillers added four additional rigs last week. The increase represents the 10th straight weeks of increases;
- The supply of gasoline to the US market (a proxy for demand) fell to 8.465 million barrels per day in comparison with the previous week, according to the EIA; and
- In Southeast Asia and northwest Europe, refining margins improved slightly and remain above the typical levels. In the Gulf Coast region of the U.S., refining margins decreased slightly but still remain above typical levels.
For more justification of this forecast, visit StratasAdvisors.com.