After an eight-month civil war that culminated in the death of Moammar Gadhafi, oil production in Libya is showing some signs of resurgence. Some sources say production is moving more swiftly than expected, but on the other hand most reports indicate that the current oil output is about one-third of what it was before the war.

The bottom line is that will take some time for Libya to resume its pre-war production level. A production-recovery timeline is difficult, if not impossible, to establish at this juncture. But one thing is assured: Investors will, for the time being, be content to take a wait-and-see attitude before speculating on Libyan oil operations.

"In the short run, six to nine months, I would expect foreign operators to focus on repairing damaged properties and establishing relationships with the transitional government, including making sure that the former contracts will be respected. Once those immediate priorities are taken care of, operators can shift toward a longer-term investment horizon, such as accelerating exploration in emerging plays, notably offshore in the Mediterranean," Pavel Molchanov, senior vice president of energy equity research for Raymond James & Associates, told Oil and Gas Investor.

On Nov. 2, Nouri Berrouin, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC), told Reuters that oil production has climbed to 567,000 barrels per day. Libya produced roughly 1.6 million barrels per day before the war began. Reuters said that production at the El Sharara field, which is operated by the Spanish oil and gas company Repsol, is leading the uptick. The field, located in the desert in the western portion of the country, is currently producing 90,000 barrels per day.

In an interview with National Public Radio on Oct. 30, John Hamilton, a North African energy expert from Cross-border Information, a London-based publishing and research company, talked about Libya's timetable for resuming full production.

"The best estimates think that it could take about two years to do that. The worst estimates say five years, but that seems unduly pessimistic," he said.

An Oct. 4 report on the Al Bawaba network, which is based in the Middle East, cited a report from Petroleum Policy Intelligence that predicted Libyan oil production would reach 1 million barrels per day by the end of November.

However, at least one U.S.-based company is wary of such bold recovery expectations.

According to a Nov. 1 Dow Jones Newswires report, Marathon Oil is expecting its production in Libya to limp along, saying that equipment needs to be repaired and that security needs to improve before workers will be brought back into the country. In the report, Marathon Oil executive vice president David Roberts said that it will take "some time before you see us talk with any confidence about Libya."

Marathon, ConocoPhillips and Hess, which are part of the Waha consortium, along with Occidental, are the four significant U.S. players that have interests in Libya, Molchanov said.

"As a general rule, European operators are getting back into Libya at a faster pace than U.S. operators. One factor may be the fact that the European operators have a longer track record in the country," he said. "Remember, U.S. sanctions were only lifted in 2004, whereas some of the European and other international players had operations in Libya during the 1990s, so their 'comfort factor' there is probably higher."

In fact, the Italian oil company Eni restarted production at some of its Libyan wells last week. A New York Times online story states that Eni's return to Libya is "an important first step toward the stabilization of the country's economy, which relies heavily on oil." The French company Total said that it plans to resume its Libyan production from an offshore oil platform, according to the Times.

While the news about Eni and Total is uplifting for a country whose economy is heavily weighted in oil, everyday life is not remotely close to returning to normal.

As a nation, Libya faces monumental challenges in rebuilding infrastructure that was devastated by war. While Gadhafi’s death for the most part signaled an end to fighting in Libya, armed confrontations were still breaking out earlier this week.

According to a CNN online report, the scene on Tripoli's streets these days -- heavily armed men brandishing guns and racing across the city with no central command and little or no accountability -- has raised concerns among residents, not to mention oil and gas companies.

In addition, the country's ripped-up roads and bridges, bullet-riddled hospitals and a ruptured supply chain are major barriers that will not be easily overcome.

Before the war, Libya produced 2% of the world's oil. Some experts say that the current reduction in Libyan exports will not be devastating for oil-importing countries. Yet, lower oil production from Libya could strain the amount of the buffer that the world has in its spare capacity.

The postponement of the annual Oil & Gas Libya 2011 exhibition and conference, originally scheduled in October, is an indicator of the prevailing catch-up mode that currently has a grip on the country's production. Organizers say that the conference, which attracts an international audience, will be rescheduled sometime in first-quarter 2012.

Contact the author, Mike Madere, at mmadere@hartenergy.com.