Capex spending levels for worldwide exploration and production (E&P) companies in 2015 should be strong, if not higher than 2014’s levels, according to a recent report from Barclays.

Senior analyst James C. West outlined the major points of the “Global 2014 E&P Spending Update” report in a conference call June 18. The report is in its June iteration (released every December and the following June).

“The vast majority” of companies that Barclays surveyed for the report “are expected to increase” their spending levels in 2015, the report indicated. A grouping of 76%—out of the total surveyed (more than 300 oil and natural gas companies around the world)—will increase their drilling budgets. Of the 76%, 14% said that there will be year-over-year (yoy) growth of more than 20% from this year to next, the report noted. Compared to the December report, only 19% of operators—as opposed to the previous 56%--said capex would be flat next year.

The report, citing statistics from the Energy Information Administration, also said that for increased capex to occur in 2015, activity levels need to rise “at least enough to offset global decline rates” of about 7%. Activity levels must keep pace with demand, the report added.

Regarding the current year, however, Barclays’ report said major companies are exercising “capital discipline.” This year, E&P spending should reach $712 billion, up 6.2% from 2013. This estimation “is consistent” with December’s numbers, the report said. North America, the Middle East and Asia should make gains of 8.4%, 16% and 8%, respectively.

Throughout the rest of the year, the United States should rise 9.6% to a “record” $165 billion, the report said. The country started the year with a land rig count increased by 10% year-to-date, but capex budgets were “constrained.”

Canada should have a similar pattern this year. Capex spending should increase more than 4.5% yoy. In December, yoy growth was estimated at only 3.2%, the report said.

Both larger-cap and smaller-cap companies in North America should benefit during the rest of this year from WTI prices of $91 per barrel and a Henry Hub price of $4.12 for natural gas, West said. These are “well below current prices and up only modestly from forecasts in December,” the report said.

Shifting gears to outside North America, West said that “the Middle East is driving a lot of growth,” noting that most of it is being driven by Saudi Aramco’s unconventional drilling in the Red Sea. The recent political unrest in Iraq has raised WTI and Brent commodity prices by about 4% “in the past five trading sessions,” the report said, noting that if violence continues, there could be “a meaningful uptick in global oil prices” and improved E&P cash flows. West said that companies working in the region would likely shift work to North America if they wanted to leave, but that very large ones like Exxon wouldn’t feel a spending increase “immediately.”

Barclays’ estimate for Latin America saw a downturn from the December report. Originally predicting a 13% increase in capex spending, West said the company now predicts an increase of just 5%. There has been “less growth” and there was “a slower start to the year” for the region as Pemex, Petrobras and other majors undergo serious shifts, West said.

The E&P spending outlook should change as the year progresses. Barclays expected “further revisions” to its estimates.