Domestic crude oil and condensate production will continue to grow rapidly through the end of this decade, according to a just-released Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. study.
The report projected U.S. crude production will grow by 4.8 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) from 2013 through 2020. That would represent more than a 50% increase from the mid-2014 number. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s current production estimate stands at 8.4 MMbbl/d for May, its latest figure.
The report projected 81% of the growth will come from three plays--the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford--then added, “we forecast the Permian, alone, will grow by 1.8+ MMbbl/d and compose ~40% of net oil growth.” It also said the Permian’s natural gas production will grow by 3 billion cubic feet per day during the period. That overall increase in production will have a major impact on the basin’s midstream sector and “will require meaningful infrastructure investment,” Tudor predicted.
The energy investment bank estimated domestic oil production will reach 12.3 MMbbl/d in 2020, with two-thirds of U.S. output in that year coming from the seven unconventional plays studied: the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Niobrara, South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (Scoop), Mississippi Lime and Granite Wash/Tonkawa/Cleveland.
That would easily set a new U.S. record. The nation’s all-time peak for crude production came in the fall of 1970 at a little more than 10 MMbbl/d, according to government figures.
Tudor staffers took a bottom-up research approach to forecast potential crude production trends for the seven basins, based on current type curves and “basin-specific assumptions to achieve annual production estimates through 2020.” The findings indicate annual oil production growth will be ticking upward at between 700,000 bbl/d and 900,000 bbl/d per year through 2017, then fall back to a strong--but slower--annual growth rate of around 450,000 bbl/d in 2020.
That good upstream news could be tempered if the downstream doesn’t respond appropriately to the increase, the bulk of which will be light crudes and condensate, the study said.
“If a combination of exports/refining expansions/flexibility doesn’t absorb a significant portion of the growth, then domestic light-crude prices could fall sufficiently to dis-incent supply growth,” it warned.
Condensate will make up a significant portion of the growth in liquids production. The report said that a “noticeable change in GOR [gas-oil ratio] moving from oil to condensate classification” has already occurred in recent years.
In the Eagle Ford, the report said condensate (higher than 45º API gravity) will continue to represent about one-third of the play’s liquids, even as overall liquids output grows.
“The pressure to allow oil exports will grow along with supply,” the report predicted. “We doubt free-flowing U.S. oil exports occur in the next couple years (more likely after 2016).” The nation’s refiners, focused for decades on heavy and sour feedstocks, will expand light-crude refining capacity “but we are not sure they can keep pace with nearly 1 MMbbl/d per year of growth.”
Six of the seven unconventional plays will experience production growth through 2020. The Scoop, however, is forecast to peak at around 157,000 bbl/d in 2018, then decline slightly to around 147,000 bbl/d by 2020, the study said.
Those production forecasts translate into good news for drilling contractors. The report said the rig count should grow by 444 rigs in the seven basins, “with 83% of the growth in the Permian Basin but measureable growth in the Niobrara and Scoop also.”
The actual growth in the rig U.S. fleet could have a major impact on the study’s projections, the firm reported. A swing of +/- 10% in the rig count could result in a +/- 600,000 bbl/d swing in projected oil output growth by 2020, the report added.
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