Everyone has an opinion today about the direction of oil prices and thus, what crude production will be at year-end. Meanwhile, we are entering what some call “a good sweating.” But in the traditional Native American sweat lodge, participants are not punished—yes, they do endure extreme conditions within the lodge, but with a great deal of support. Inside, they focus, pray and sing in order to emerge spiritually “purified” and thankful.

If oil producers were in such a lodge, we presume they would pray for price recovery and vow to emerge healthier and more efficient on the other side.

We hear guesstimates ranging from a low of $25 or $30/bbl in June, to $75 by year-end. Some CEOs have proclaimed that they can make as good a return now at $45 oil as they did when prices were $85 or $95, thanks to increased drilling efficiencies piled on top of service company price capitulation—and drilling only in the core of the core of a play.

If you run an E&P company, you could look in the mirror and answer questions based on how much you intend to cut your own production and well completion count.

Nationwide, it now appears the answers will be based on three factors: a tug of war between full storage at Cushing, Oklahoma; which direction U.S. production takes thanks to the steep rig count drop (which has a ways more to go, experts say); and the speed at which drilled but uncompleted wells are finally completed.

Observers say the oil storage facilities at Cushing could be at capacity sometime in May, precipitating a further price plunge. Already at press time, they were around 65% full, or at 80-year highs, according to the latest EIA data. If full, the next step could be dire—shutting in producing wells.

Even so, most people expect U.S. production to increase this year, albeit not by as much as in each of the past three years.

RBC Capital analysts led by Kurt Hallead and Leo Mariani indicated the following in a research note: “We expect total U.S. oil production growth to increase by 900,000 bbl/d in 2015, mostly from oil shale plays. By our assessment, wells that were drilled but not yet on production in the four main oil growth contributors (Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian, and Wattenberg) reached approximately 4,200 wells.

“Based on the recent completion pace, this inventory, plus wells that are currently drilling, provides nine months of new well tie-in activity. The rate of new permits and spuds has slowed considerably but well productivity is increasing.”

Kudos to Bloomberg for coining the term “fracklog,” for the hundreds of well stimulation jobs now on backlog by design. Many E&Ps now choose to drill but not frack their wells, instead waiting for better oil prices before they enjoy that flush production in the first six months of a well’s productive life.

Bob Brackett at Bernstein Research said in an early March research note, “The E&P sector has now guided down 2015 capex about 39% year-over-year ($58 billion in cuts from our 55-operator screen). This cut matches our forecast for a roughly $60/bbl world. This cut is the largest in 20 years. It matches the fall in U.S. rig count, which is down 36% (from the peak, -32% y-o-y).”

Daniel Katzenberg of Robert W. Baird said in a research note that we are seeing Contango Shock, the steepest price curve in some years. “… after discussion with some of the savvier physical market participants, we think it is prudent for equity investors to prepare for a potential sharp correction as WTI discounts to clear the market and incentivize transport out of the Midcontinent,” he wrote.

“Energy stocks could look through a spot price collapse to the strip (one-year at $56/bbl, three-year at $62/bbl, and five-year at $65/bbl), though valuation pegged on longer-dated expectations will do little to offset declining revenue from unhedged oil production in Q2 results.”

Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit’s latest thinking was this at press time: “Our 2015-16 earnings estimates are based on 2015 average prices of $53.95/bbl for WTI oil, $60.96/bbl for Brent and $2.97/Mcf for Henry Hub natural gas—and 2016 average prices of $61.28/bbl for WTI, $68.22/bbl for Brent, and $3.38/Mcf for natural gas.”

No region has seen a faster, more severe rig drop than West Texas, which brings up a million questions for us. That’s why DUG Permian in Fort Worth on May 20-21 promises to be fascinating this year. Industry leaders and observers will share their take on what the future holds in the oil-rich region while E&Ps manage in this downcycle—and production continues to rise. On the other hand, if natural gas is your commodity of choice, please join us at DUG East in Pittsburgh on June 24-25 for a closer look at the region where wells that IP at 30 MMcf/d and more are becoming commonplace.