Events of the past 18 months prove there are no crystal balls out there worth having. But let’s look at the outlook for energy legislation, financing, oil and gas prices and rig counts anyway.

At press time, analysts from Morgan Stanley and a senior official with Barclays Capital declared there will be no energy climate-change bill passed by the Senate in 2009—nor in 2010.

“Here’s what I view as the baseline or the undertow to prevent legislation. Four words: health care, jobless recovery. I’m afraid the momentum to pass energy ...