With E&Ps set to report fourth-quarter 2016 earnings and 2017 guidance in early February, analysts laid out what investors can expect for capex budgets, production growth and more going forward. Many E&Ps are expected to significantly boost spending and put more rigs back to work, particularly as the year progresses.
The impacts of service pricing increases and production ramp-ups also may register most strongly later in 2017, according to a report from Cowen & Co.’s Charles Robertson II and Kathy Yang.
“Bullish crude views and strong relative performance late-2016 post-OPEC leave E&Ps looking for an incremental investor,” the Cowen analysts said. Permian and Stack players are best-positioned to attract money flows, but perhaps not until their stock prices pull back. Natural gas-focused E&Ps are most out of favor with investors, followed by D-J Basin drillers, according to the report.
Cowen said Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX), Williams Cos. Inc. (NYSE: WMB) and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC) will raise capex programs above levels anticipated by The Street. The analysts forecast 2017 estimated capex of about $43 billion for their coverage group vs. about $28 billion for 2016, with a hike to about $52 billion for 2018.
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Rig count estimates for 2017 and 2018 are similarly upbeat. Cowen projects the year-end operated count for its coverage universe at 282 for this year and 298 for next.
“After reviewing the current rig count and production guidance for our E&P coverage, we expect to see another [approximate] 35 rigs added by the end of 2017,” the analysts said, noting that most additions would likely drive 2018’s growth rather than 2017’s.
Natural gas E&Ps could absorb about 35% of the rig increase for the firm’s covered companies “as the availability of pipeline capacity increases for a more reliable growth outlook in 2018.”
The analysts said capital intensity could expand “notably” as higher production activity in 2017 creates steeper base decline rates in 2018.
“As a result, we expect the upcoming 2017 budgets to be raised higher in second-half 2017 if commodity prices continue to improve,” the Cowen report said.
Gabriele Sorbara at Williams Capital Group also weighed in on anticipated themes as E&Ps report earnings. He looks for companies to comment on higher well costs from service cost inflation—“hearing up to 20%”—and larger completions, which could pressure margins and affect completions designs. He estimates 2017 drilling and completions capex to rise more than 35% for North America on average.
Sorbara said fourth-quarter 2016 production would likely be impacted by harsh weather in the Bakken and Permian, and he looks for production momentum to be weighted toward the second half of this year and next.
He expects E&Ps to comment on de-risking of additional zones and downspacing efforts in the Permian and Stack/Scoop, but said data points would be weighted toward the second half of 2017, especially for newer entrants. He looks for continued organic growth across the core resource plays as E&Ps report their on-deck year-end proved reserves.
He said maintaining balance sheet integrity and high-grading portfolios would remain important themes for executives’ broader focus. M&A activity should continue in the most economic resource plays.
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