At this point most people have more questions than answers, as at press time the price of crude oil kept slipping down the slope of oversupply, taking hopes, rig counts and stock prices with it.

The biggest questions: When will U.S. production roll over? When will the oil price decline hit bottom, finally giving oil and equities a boost?

While waiting for a glimmer of hope, E&Ps are looking to trim seven areas of capital allocation: maintenance capital to keep production flat, G&A, dividends or buybacks, development drilling capex, midstream or other facilities, and finally, exploration or “science projects” such as drilling on the fringe or to deeper zones within a proven area.

It is noteworthy how many E&Ps have cut their budgets by anywhere from 20% to 70%—while at the same time promising to increase production this year. This isn’t going to lessen the oil glut.

You have to ask, if a company can cut budget a lot and still grow production (albeit at a slower rate), why wasn’t it that efficient in the past two years, instead of levering up and outspending cash flow? (We’re talking strictly drilling and completions now, not accounting for spending on land acquisitions or lease-expiration-fueled drilling.)

Even if the current turmoil ends in fourth-quarter 2015, we’ll see the most visible effects of activity cutbacks in 2016. Throughout this issue, you’ll see more on this. Meanwhile, many E&Ps and drilling contractors said in January that service costs have already come down by 10% or more.

The EIA offers no hope, saying domestic oil output will not go down this year. It estimated 2015 U.S. oil production of 9.3 MM bbl/d vs. 2014’s year-end exit rate of 9.2 MM bbl/d—and, its initial forecast for 2016 is 9.5 MM bbl/d (up 2% from 2015 estimates). This would mark the second-highest annual average since 1970.

Where do we stand? To get right to it, here’s a compilation of comments from several thought leaders:

Barclays analyst Tom Driscoll: “Expectations for mid-cycle oil prices may not be realistic. We continue to envision strong oil production growth in the U.S. in 2015. Our recent analysis of U.S. tight oil supply suggests that supply costs on a per barrel basis have fallen 25+% over the last two years. We anticipate that supply cost reductions could accelerate as U.S. producers cut back on capex and high-grade their activities.

“Further cost reductions will likely lead to volume gains that exceed expectations and the abundance of relatively cheap oil supply from the U.S. producers could delay a price recovery.”

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. research: “Increased downhole intensity and drilling efficiencies have shifted completions by about 2/3 (and higher) of well costs. Given this and current crude prices, does it make sense for some to forego bringing wells online and instead, wait for crude/service pricing to improve? While well economics at the lower end of the cost curve fare better in this analysis, timing may still be an important factor to consider. Listening for anecdotes in this vein may cause crude supply to crest sooner than our base case…we believe the bulk of service cost savings will flow through starting in Q2-plus…”

ABN Amro senior energy economist Hans van Cleef: “We believe oil prices have dropped too far and too fast. The first signals for a possible upward price recovery are already emerging. The market, however, is ignoring them….We now believe the oil price will be significantly lower than we expected, and despite the recovery we expect in oil prices over the course of 2015. We now expect an average Brent oil price of $60/bbl in 2015 and $75 in 2016.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Drew Venker: “Many E&Ps expect oil prices to average well above the strip in 2015, leading to less drastic capex cuts and higher production. If prices are below management expectations, we believe 2015 budgets will be revised lower, but probably not until mid-2015. The result would be a prolonged production response where volumes for oily E&Ps may not roll over until 2016.”

RBC Capital Markets’ Kurt Hallead: “Historically, during periods of 50%-plus declines in oil price, rig count drops by about 50% over two consecutive quarters. We have recalibrated our U.S. land forecast to reflect our view that the U.S. land rig count bottoms in mid-2015 (from 3Q15 previously). We expect…total U.S. land rigs down 34% year/year in 2015, horizontal down 21% and non-horizontal down 67%. Industry commentary suggests that 500 rigs could be laid down in 1Q. Spot pricing is already down about 10% [as of January 15].”

Deutsche Bank: “While oversold conditions might imply the oil price is ripe for a short term bounce, physical oil market fundamentals in the first half of this year are the weakest since 1998. As a result, any technical correction in the oil price, if it were to occur, would still be based on shaky foundations.”