Shrinking oil supply in first-half 2016 has come as no surprise, considering worldwide oilfield capex cuts. However, its brisk pace, especially outside of the U.S., has caught people off guard.

Supply is crumbling across categories, from onshore to offshore, from OPEC to non-OPEC countries. The combination of unexpected disruptions that are the result of political conflict and natural disasters and organic, planned declines across the globe have led to abrupt revisions in analysts’ non-U.S. supply forecasts.

In its recent Energy Stat, Raymond James is bullish, reaffirming its expectation of a “sustained oil price recovery for second-half 2016 and into 2017.” In all, Raymond James’ estimates for global oil supply have dropped off more than 800,000 barrels per day (Mbbl/d) from its assumption six months ago due to the slack in supply outside of the U.S.

The greatest supply decline comes from unrest in Nigeria, with 220 Mbbl/d of downside due largely to rebel attacks on infrastructure from the Niger Delta Avengers. The terrorist group forced Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to close down its offshore Okan Platform after they damaged it using dynamite, which took 35 Mbbl/d offline, according to the report. In April, Eni shut down a pipeline transporting 140 Mbbl/d.

The report also notes that Shell closed one export terminal due to a leaking pipeline, and “another of its export terminals has been out of commission since February.” Meanwhile, ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has been affected as well—a particular grade of crude exports has been halted, and there was a pipeline issue in early May.

Raymond James anticipates a stunning production decline of 224 Mbbl/d in Nigeria, up from 4 Mbbl/d.

Oil supply downside in Canada is 82 Mbbl/d, with “slightly less than 10 million barrels per day of production” pushed offline from the devastating wildfires in Alberta, according to the report. That figure reflects almost 50% of oil sands production and just under one-quarter of the aggregate oil production in Canada. The lack of physical damage to facilities has informed Raymond James’ conclusion that the “production recovery should be relatively expeditious,” and the impact will be limited to 10 to 21 days.

Slow growth in oil sands plays a part as well. In spite of low oil prices, Raymond James was betting on 150 Mbbl/d of growth in both 2016 and 2017. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in the first quarter of 2016, Canadian production averaged 4.56 MMbbl/d, while Raymond James’ estimate had been 140 Mbbl/d higher at 4.70 MMbbl/d, due to oil sands producers’ “scheduled maintenance and upgrading work in response to weak domestic crude prices.” In total, Raymond James’ 2016 production forecast for Canada is now 37 Mbbl/d, down from 119 Mbbl/d.

Supply is waning organically in China, with 136 Mbbl/d of downside, as “the lack of investment begins to take its toll.” This could represent the most shocking supply diminution: Chinese oil production has not experienced a decline since the 1990s, the report said. Sinopec shut down four marginal oil fields following substantial 2015 losses from China’s second-largest field, Shengli. The offshore-focused CNOOC anticipates a production decline of 2% to 5% this year, and PetroChina “is guiding to a 3% production drop” for 2016 as well.

Raymond James projects that production will continue to ebb until capital spending increases. The 2016 production forecast dropped staggeringly from 4 Mbbl/d to 131 Mbbld.