Try as they might, natural gas industry observers and players are hard pressed to find a plausible scenario for significantly higher natural gas prices in the near term. A sustained turnaround appears years away.

Bernstein Research analysts tested a bullish scenario for gas in a recent report, and after analyzing major-sector demand and other factors, said they were “unlikely to come close to what a bullish view would entail.”

The analysts used assumptions necessary to drive gas demand by a 15% compound annual growth rate. They looked at potential from ...